Japan Economics Update Undervaluation unlikely to prevent further yen weakness The yen is now “undervalued” on most measures. However, deviations from fundamental value can, of course, persist for a very long time and should not prove an obstacle to fresh declines. We continue... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Our key market calls for 2014 As the Fed gradually begins to scale back its monetary stimulus this year, we expect the dollar to rise and government bond yields to continue to drift higher. We also think investors’ appetite for... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling unemployment unlikely to prompt rate hike While unemployment is falling swiftly towards the 7% threshold above which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has pledged to keep official interest rates on hold, it remains unlikely that rates will... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira may trigger Turkish rate hike The Turkish central bank has been extremely reluctant to raise official interest rates over the past year or so. However, the recent fall in the lira may now force its hand. On balance, we think it is... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Large-scale currency intervention set to continue Pledges by the People's Bank to end currency intervention are likely to crumble in the face of sustained pressure on the renminbi to appreciate. We think that China's central bank could accumulate... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira comes under fire A high-level corruption scandal has taken its toll on Turkey’s financial markets over the past month. The stock market has been the second worst performer among those of the emerging economies that we... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian stocks soar to post-Arab Spring high The Egyptian stock market has hit a post-"Arab Spring" high. This comes on the back of signs that the economy may finally be finding its feet as well as recent progress towards fresh elections. 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets shrug off Fed tapering Asian financial markets took the Fed’s decision last week to taper its asset purchases under QE3 largely in their stride. Currencies fell, but not by much, while equity markets on the whole were up... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities slump, market rates surge China’s interbank rates have surged this week on the back of seasonal tightness in liquidity that has been compounded by uncertainty about policymakers’ intentions. But with the People’s Bank today... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A rollercoaster month for Ukraine’s financial markets Escalating political protests caused Ukrainian bond yields and CDS premia to spike at the start of the month. However, following the announcement that Ukraine will receive financial assistance from... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets to come under renewed pressure in 2014 Latin America's financial markets have stabilised during the past month, but are likely to come under pressure again in 2014 as global monetary conditions tighten and commodity prices fall. We expect... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospect of Fed tapering prompts some capital flight Investors in emerging market assets clearly remain concerned about the consequences of a tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases. EPFR Global data reveal that there were net ETF and mutual fund... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand set to weaken further next year The key development in African financial markets over the course of 2013 has been the slump in the South African rand, which has depreciated by more than 20% against the US dollar. But while most of... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK markets struggling to hear MPC's dovish message UK markets continue to think that official interest rates will rise in mid-2015 despite some dovish signals from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) over the last month. In particular, MPC members... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Is Fed tapering now priced in? Emerging market assets have suffered since mid-October from renewed speculation that the US Fed will taper its asset purchases sooner rather than later. Both equities and bonds have sold off over the... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
