Latin America Economics Update Currencies back in the firing line Latin America has not been spared in the latest emerging market sell-off, with currencies and bonds tumbling over the past few weeks. However, in contrast to May’s sell-off, equity markets have so far... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Coming through the EM sell-off relatively unscathed Emerging European currencies have generally withstood the recent EM financial market sell-off relatively well. Meanwhile, equities in Central Europe have made strong gains over the past month. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The floodgates re-open … at least temporarily The respite enjoyed by emerging markets (EMs) during the first half of July has not lasted. Indeed, net portfolio inflows remained negative over the course of the month as a whole according to EPFR... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is India heading toward crisis? The slide of the rupee has triggered speculation that India is heading toward a balance of payments crisis. We do not think a crisis is on the cards, but the outlook is downbeat and fraught with risks... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three questions (and answers) about the EM currency sell-off The renewed sell-off in EM currencies has cast a fresh spotlight on vulnerabilities in the emerging world. In this Update we answer three key questions that have been raised by recent market moves. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Low valuations fuel euro-zone outperformance Euro-zone equities have staged something of a revival so far in the second half of 2013, returning over 10% and outperforming US equities. Relatively low valuations have probably played an important... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen’s recovery likely to be temporary There are many factors behind the recent partial recovery in the yen and associated weakness in the Nikkei, but perhaps the most important is fading expectations of more aggressive monetary easing by... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness is not a panacea The conventional wisdom is that a weak yen should help boost the competitiveness of Japanese exports. However, most exports are invoiced in foreign currency, and exporters have been reluctant to lower... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: naira devaluation on the cards Our forecasts for a fall in oil prices, coupled with a relatively high rate of domestic inflation, suggest that pressure on the Nigerian naira is likely to build over the next year or so. We think... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Forward guidance is already helping to anchor gilt yields Much has already been made of the absence of a fall in interest rate expectations and short gilt yields in response to the “forward guidance” announced by the MPC yesterday. But this does not suggest... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging market assets regain some poise Dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have recovered some poise over the past month. This has been driven primarily by a decline in credit spreads, which have fallen significantly from... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Is the worst now over for "risky" assets? A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Dollar-denominated bonds continue to languish Dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds underperformed similarly-rated US dollar corporate bonds significantly in the recent sell-off. Most of this underperformance has not been unwound... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Calm after the storm Financial markets in Africa were relatively calm in July following the wide-scale sell-off in June. Currencies, bonds and equities have rallied, although bond yields remain above the lows seen at the... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global potash price slump won't harm Canada's economy The anticipated slump in potash prices should have only a minor impact on Canada's economy. Potash mining represents a tiny share of Canada's GDP and exports. Moreover, the relatively lower cost of... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets recovering from June’s sell-off Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their losses from the sell-off last month. Looking ahead, we see some scope for gains in the region’s equities and currencies over the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
