Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia Markets Monitor (Sep.) Asian currencies and equity markets have rebounded strongly over the past month. The biggest gains have been in those countries that were hardest hit by the sell-off in August. Bond yields have fallen... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can sterling’s summer rally be sustained? It should only be a matter of time before the recent fall in the number of people losing their job is followed by a rise in the number of people finding a job. Less firing and more hiring is obviously... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The market implications of the FOMC's attitude to tapering We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of the FOMC’s largely unexpected decision to delay a tapering of its asset purchases. The new numbers are presented in the tables on pages 1 and 2... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: New foreign exchange mechanism, old problems The Venezuelan government is expected to launch a new foreign exchange mechanism over the coming days, but past form suggests that it is unlikely to ease the shortages of foreign currency that have... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Portuguese government bonds come under fire The yield spread of 10-year government bonds in Portugal over German Bunds has increased by about 70bp since this time last month, in stark contrast to a small decrease in the yield spread of 10-year... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers step back from foreign exchange intervention One of the more surprising features of August’s EM currency sell-off is how little policymakers in the worst-affected countries intervened in foreign exchange markets to try to stop it. In the case of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging market equities stop underperforming Returns from emerging market equities have been positive since this time last month. Moreover, emerging market equities appear to have stopped underperforming developed market equities. If this... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies have not fully restored competitiveness The depreciation of exchange rates across Latin America since May only goes part of the way to restoring external competitiveness that has been lost over the past five years. As such, we suspect that... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fed tapering unlikely to put region’s external positions at risk The turbulence in financial markets over the past few months has raised concerns about how emerging markets will perform as global monetary conditions tighten. In the case of Africa, current account... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: hryvnia’s stability masks underlying weakness At first sight, the stability of the hryvnia over the past few months suggests that Ukraine has been relatively insulated from the sharp sell-off in other emerging markets. But a closer look reveals... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack 10-year gilt yields hit 3% as markets disregard guidance The much improved news on the UK economy has prompted investors to expect the MPC to raise official interest rates in the first quarter of 2015, 18 months earlier than the Committee has indicated they... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What next for the Egyptian pound? Following the recent strengthening of the Egyptian pound, we have revised our year-end forecast for the currency. But in this Watch, we explain why we still think that, over a longer horizon, the... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower before year-end We expect the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar to be followed by another downward leg before year-end. While improving global economic conditions and buoyant commodity prices will help to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Government bonds decouple, but for how long? The 10-year US Treasury yield increased even further in July despite reassurances from Fed officials that US monetary policy is likely to remain highly accommodative for a long time. By contrast, the... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
