DM Valuations Monitor New Zealand kiwi likely to remain overvalued The real effective exchange (REER) rate of the New Zealand dollar is around 20% higher than its average over the past ten years. But we are forecasting only a small depreciation in the kiwi, even as... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation in Emerging Asia to remain subdued Inflation in Emerging Asia has fallen back over the past few months and remains low by historical standards. Looking ahead, inflation looks set to remain fairly benign. Currency weakness over the past... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider currency band doesn't shift fundamentals The People's Bank (PBOC) is keen to signal that this weekend's widening of the renminbi's trading band means that the currency's days as a "one-way bet" are over. But fundamentals still point to a... 16th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are China’s exporters struggling to compete? The recent slide of the renminbi and February’s weak exports have been linked by some to a supposed loss of competitiveness in China’s export sector. In fact, despite rapid wage growth and trend... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Investors’ appetite returns, but is fussy Despite the crisis in Ukraine, which has hit some currencies and assets in Emerging Europe hard, there are signs that investors are rediscovering an appetite for investing in selected emerging markets... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Italy’s and Spain’s sovereign credit spreads fall further 10-year government bond yields in Italy and Spain continued to decline in February. Admittedly, yield spreads over 10-year German Bunds seem reasonable given the countries’ current sovereign credit... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone consumers yet to join the recovery While euro-zone activity indicators suggest that the region’s recovery has picked up speed a bit in the early months of 2014, growth remains worryingly unbalanced. For now, exporters appear to be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What will be the wider fallout from conflict in Ukraine? The crisis in Ukraine has the potential to have a further significant and prolonged impact on global financial markets, even though our current judgement is that the fallout is likely to be short... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Competitive gains from weak yen fail to materialise Despite the sharp fall in the yen since 2012, Japanese exporters lost global market share last year. Rising costs and a sluggish world economy have played a part and both factors should fade in... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi hit by a policy wave The People’s Bank (PBC) dropped a large rock into the usually tranquil waters of China’s currency policy in February. Its attempt to reduce speculative inflows caused the largest single-month decline... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack EM turbulence spreads to Africa The turmoil in EM financial markets over the past six months has spread to a number of economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), taking some of the gloss off the region’s upbeat growth story in the... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Monetary policy to remain a support for asset prices We doubt that UK asset prices will be undermined significantly by the onset of tighter monetary policy in the UK or overseas. Admittedly, history suggests otherwise – the global monetary tightening... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies rebound, rupiah leads the way Following sharp falls in January, Asian currencies and equity markets have rebounded over the past month. Meanwhile, government bond yields have been broadly flat. 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 13) While Q4’s Swiss GDP figures were a bit disappointing, they do not suggest that the economy is succumbing to the strength of the exchange rate. 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider currency band is not the goal A widening of the renminbi’s trading band is likely soon. But it would be wrong to think of such a shift as the main motivation for the currency’s recent moves. Indeed, a wider currency band would not... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
