Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors flee China’s equity market Net selling by global ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to investing in equities in China was larger in March than in any other month on record according to EPFR Global. This presumably reflected... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Unrest in east Ukraine has limited effect on markets Financial markets across Emerging Europe have proved relatively resilient to the recent escalation in political unrest in eastern Ukraine. But at the same time, the recovery from the losses earlier in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB’s QE unlikely to be the panacea that markets hope The ECB looks increasingly willing to implement some form of explicit quantitative easing (QE) soon. However, the market impacts may be smaller and more varied than widely hoped. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets regain some composure after Q1 rout Following a woeful Q1, financial markets in Africa have stabilised in the early part of Q2. In most countries, bond yields have edged down and currencies have made modest gains. Nevertheless, there... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields defy strong economic news Despite further signs that the UK’s economic recovery has remained strong, gilt yields have continued to fall over the last month. Indeed, the 10-year gilt yield recently touched a six-month low... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Mar.) & FX reserves (Q1) Despite a surge in bank loans and relatively loose interbank liquidity conditions in March, today's data show that the credit slowdown is still on track. Meanwhile, although the foreign exchange... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is there a bubble in the US tech sector? Much of the recent pull-back in the US stock market appears to have reflected a concern that valuations in the technology sector are frothy. But we are a long way from the situation that prevailed at... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging market equities back in favour The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has returned nearly 3% in local currency terms since this time last month. At least three factors may explain why emerging market equities have been on the mend. First... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Better second half in store for the Nikkei There are good reasons to be cautious on the near-term prospects for the Nikkei, but we expect equities in Japan to outperform those in other major developed markets over the rest of the year. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Is US corporate credit risk becoming mispriced? The credit spreads of US corporate bonds fell further in March. At around 1.7%, the spread over Treasuries of those with a 7-10 year maturity and BBB rating is now below its average of the last... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Aussie dollar heading down under? The Australian dollar has been one of this year’s best performing major currencies. But given the outlook for monetary policy and the prices of some of Australia’s major exports, we think that it will... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will credit spreads continue to fall in Latin America? The “stripped spread” over US Treasuries of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Latin America Index fell by 30bp in March, bringing its decline since the start of February to almost a full percentage point... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Liquidity tightens again The renminbi weakened against the dollar in March for a second month in a row but it is still one of the emerging world’s better performing currencies over the past year. Meanwhile, a renewed... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A mixed month for Asian currencies After a solid bounce across the board in February, the performance of most Asian currencies and equity markets was muted over the past month. That said, investors were still showing improved appetite... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
