Europe Chart Pack Weak growth & strong euro keep pressure on ECB Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation easing despite stronger recovery CPI inflation fell sharply from 2.7% to 2.2% in October and it looks likely to fall below the 2% target soon. Past falls in global agricultural commodity prices suggest that food price inflation will... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Sterling’s strength is unlikely to last Sterling has been the best performing major developed market currency over the past few months, appreciating to more than 1.64 dollars, compared to an exchange rate of 1.50 during the summer. The... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Aussie dollar likely to come under further pressure The Australian dollar was the second-worst performing of the G-10 currencies in November behind the Japanese yen, shedding nearly 4% of its value against the US dollar. We expect the Aussie to remain... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities rebound, bond yields surge China’s stock market rebounded strongly in the second half of November, as the comprehensive reform plan released following the Plenum seems to have eased fears of a sharp slowdown in the economy... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Optimism surrounding Argentina may be overdone Bond markets have reacted positively to election results in Argentina which effectively mean that the incumbent, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, will be unable to serve beyond her current term ending... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What impact would RMB liberalisation have on Treasuries? The People’s Bank of China (PBC) recently asserted that its intervention in the currency market would “basically” end. If this proves to be the case, it would represent a significant change of heart... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai equities hit five-year high as World Expo vote looms Dubai’s equity market hit a five-year high this month amid growing optimism surrounding the Emirate’s economic rebound. Confidence may be given an extra boost if, as is widely expected, Dubai wins the... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets see renewed volatility Continued uncertainty over when the US Federal Reserve will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has led to renewed volatility across Asian financial markets over the past month. Currencies... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies likely to face renewed pressure African currencies have remained broadly stable over the past month or so but, looking ahead, the general trend is likely to be one of weakness against the US dollar over the next year. In particular... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian and Turkish markets continue to underperform It’s been a bumpy few weeks for equities and currencies in the region. Those in the two largest economies, Turkey and Russia, have underperformed. Meanwhile, the Czech koruna has posted the largest... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s exchange rate pegs? The non-oil producing MENA countries have historically tended to back up their currency pegs to the US dollar by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. But the... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Stronger growth and low rates support UK markets UK markets are being supported by a favourable combination of accelerating economic growth, weakening inflation and very low interest rates. Granted, the MPC has brought forward to the third quarter... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bonds continue to be shunned EPFR Global data reveal that ETF and mutual fund portfolio flows into emerging market (EM) bonds were negative in October for the fifth month running. By contrast, flows into EM equities were... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stepping back from the EM currency rollercoaster EM currencies have resumed their rollercoaster ride over the past couple of weeks – first weakening on the back of renewed expectations that the Fed might start to taper its asset purchases by the end... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More downside for yen and upside for Japanese equities The Nikkei closed back above 15,000 today, helped by a renewed decline in the yen past 100 to the dollar. We expect Japanese equities to advance further and the currency to continue to weaken, due... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
