DM Valuations Monitor How overvalued is the US stock market? At almost 26, the level of Shiller’s 10-year cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) is currently more than 65% above its average since 1881. But the CAPE is inflated because reported earnings... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Russian markets continues Emerging European equities have rebounded over the past month, driven by Russian stocks. However, this has merely recouped losses seen earlier in the year. Looking ahead, we’re relatively downbeat on... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Iraq crisis tops a long list of geopolitical risks There are good reasons to be relaxed about the global economic fall-out from the latest crisis in Iraq, including the possibility that it might actually lead to an improvement in relations between the... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for Russia's financial markets? We do not think the recent outperformance of Russia’s financial markets and currency will last. Indeed, the ruble has already dropped back slightly over the past week or so. There are three key... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Low market volatility is raising long-term risks The low levels of volatility in financial markets reflect a high degree of confidence in the ability of the authorities to prevent crises and respond to shocks, expectations that any policy changes... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower Canadian dollar unlikely to catapult economy The Canadian dollar's decline, which began about a year ago, has reinforced the Bank of Canada's prior view that it's long-awaited export recovery is finally set to go. Over the past year, however... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Less to EM reserve accumulation than meets the eye Foreign exchange reserve accumulation by emerging markets has been cited by some as a reason whybond yields in the developed world have fallen in recent months and by others as evidence that the... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB falls well short of Bank of Japan’s bold easing The muted market responses to the ECB’s policy announcements today are not necessarily a sign of failure: equity prices, bond yields and the euro itself all edged a little further in the desired... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Falling term premiums drive down Treasury yields The 10-year US Treasury yield fell further in May. Unofficial Fed data suggest that most of this year’s big decline has been due to a drop in the real yield, and that the rally has reflected a... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why we are still betting on renminbi appreciation The People’s Bank has succeeded over the past few weeks in shifting expectations for the renminbi’s future path while also scaling back its foreign exchange accumulation. At first glance the data... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia Markets Monitor (May) The election of Narendra Modi in India has provided a boost to the rupee and the Indian stock market. In contrast, the military coup in Thailand and anti-China protests in Vietnam have weighed on... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi stabilises in May The renminbi appears to have stabilised in May as market participants have pared back expectations for the currency’s appreciation. Meanwhile, weaker demand for interbank funds, along with liquidity... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Ghana and Zambia still in the firing line In line with the general rally in EM financial markets over the past couple of months, the South African rand has posted significant gains against the US$ of late. But the rally has not spread to a... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets rebound as Ukraine concerns take a back seat Russian equities and the ruble have been the region’s best performers over the past month following conciliatory remarks from Russia’s President Putin as well as Petro Poroshenko’s victory in Ukraine... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai equities fall following upgrade to EM status Dubai’s equity market tumbled earlier in the month following the upgrade by MSCI from “frontier” to “emerging” market status. Stocks in Abu Dhabi and Qatar (which were also upgraded) fell too, but to... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Strong rally in Russian equities unlikely to last Over the past month, the stock market has performed better in Russia than in any other country included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, as tensions in Ukraine have eased. But the near-15% rally... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
