Africa Economics Update EM currency turmoil spreads to Africa The recent turbulence in EM currency markets has spread to some of Africa’s major economies, with the Ghanaian cedi and Nigerian naira slumping to all-time lows against the US$ this month. The South... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's political crisis takes a heavy toll on the markets Ukraine’s bond market has been pummelled following the escalation of the political crisis in recent days. And the hryvnia has continued to weaken. Elsewhere, Russian and Hungarian assets have... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for “frontier” currencies? “Frontier” currencies have been the hardest hit in the latest bout of EM financial market turmoil. Looking ahead, we think further exchange rate weakness is likely to be concentrated in those... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How does economic reform affect emerging market assets? The implementation of growth-enhancing and risk-reducing economic reforms provides long-run benefits to investors in emerging markets. But as the recent turbulence attests, other factors play a more... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack New guidance fails to refocus gilt market on UK outlook Once again, UK asset prices appear to have been influenced more by overseas events than domestic developments. Despite further signs that the UK economy is growing at a faster rate than the rest of... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Could devaluations be on the cards in the non-oil economies? Some of the largest falls in emerging market currencies in recent weeks have come in countries where exchange rates are tightly managed and foreign exchange reserves are low. On this basis, the MENA... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Equity market slump unlikely to derail the recovery January’s sell-off in the equity market and the strengthening yen are unlikely to have much impact on the Japanese economy. Equities have regained some ground over the past week and the Nikkei is... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging market assets suffer further losses Like most other emerging market assets, dollar-denominated bonds have performed poorly over the past month. But they have at least fared better than they did during last summer’s sell-off. Spreads on... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rupee stability key to relaxation of India’s gold import curbs The rupee has come through the recent EM turbulence largely unscathed. But the authorities have hinted at the possibility of easing the gold import curbs that have reduced the trade deficit and... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA can’t keep up intervention for long Despite the recent calm, the continued decline of Argentine foreign exchange reserves suggests that it is only a matter of time before the BCRA is forced to let the peso fall again. We continue to... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slide in Norwegian krone may not be over yet Although the Norwegian krone will fare better in 2014 than it did last year, the currency may well depreciate a little further. 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Slide in Norwegian krone may not be over yet Although the Norwegian krone will fare better in 2014 than it did last year, the currency may well depreciate a little further. 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: BANREP to allow further peso weakness In contrast to other parts of the emerging world, Colombian policymakers have welcomed the recent depreciation of the peso with open arms. We suspect that a further decline in the peso would be... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar still too high to energise economy The recent slide in the Canadian dollar doesn't greatly improve Canada's economic prospects. The sharp decline looks overdone in our mind and we wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound, at least a... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the hryvnia? The hryvnia has fallen sharply over the past few days, reaching 9/$ earlier today, its lowest level since 2009. We estimate that the currency needs to fall by a further 15% or so, to around 11/$, in... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Should Sweden be worried about deflation? Sweden is less at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation than the euro-zone, despite the fact that CPI inflation is currently lower in the former. 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
