US Economics Update Other developments offset stronger dollar Even though the dollar has recently risen to a four-year high, other developments mean that overall financial conditions are supporting the economy by more than they were earlier in the year. As such... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies suffer further loses Emerging market (EM) currencies have had a rough ride recently, adding to what was already shaping up to be a poor year. Our synthetic EM exchange rate index is down by 1.5% against the dollar in the... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in ruble strengthens case for interest rate hike The sharp fall in the ruble over the past week or so reflects a combination of factors, including the drop in oil prices, continued capital flight in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Yet another distortion in US stock market valuation This Thursday, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest Financial Accounts of the United States for Q2. These are likely to show that the market value of equities issued by US non-financial... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine government has introduced various measures in recent weeks to increase the availability of foreign currency in a bid to stem the depreciation of the peso in both official and unofficial... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will sterling take the low road? While the recent fall in the pound against the US dollar has been put down to the heighteneduncertainty over the Scottish referendum result, most of the drop has actually been driven by a shiftin... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar reflects economic strength Even a further rise in the dollar above its current four-year high won’t prevent a period of higher inflation and stronger GDP growth. It would be odd to conclude that the dollar will significantly... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The dollar is not the only driver of metals’ prices Unusually, both base and precious metals prices have fallen this week. The common factor appears tobe the strength of the dollar and the prospect of imminent US monetary tightening. In our view, this... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM currency falls partly a result of euro weakness There are good reasons to think that some EM currencies remain exposed to market turbulence as we move towards the first interest rate hike in the US. However, suggestions that the recent falls in EM... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging market equities stand out from the pack Emerging market equities are on track to outperform both developed and frontier market equities in Q3 for the first quarter in seven. We would not be surprised if emerging market equities continued to... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Algeria’s economy on an unsustainable path Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s re-election in April seemed to mark a return to business as usual for the economy. However, Algeria’s growth model is looking increasingly unsustainable. If... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish central bank will need to do more to weaken krone The ECB’s unexpected announcement last week that it would lower interest rates again forced the Danish central bank to reinstate a negative deposit rate to protect the Danish krone’s peg to the euro... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Using another country’s currency is a costly option Unilateral adoption of the euro, which is the currency regime of Montenegro and a number of other countries, might seem to be a potential blueprint for other European countries outside the euro-zone... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen weakness not the only driver of Nikkei strength The renewed slide in the yen (to 106) against the dollar has helped to revive investors’ interest in the Nikkei, which closed today at its highest level since January. We remain comfortable with our... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela on the brink of a balance of payments crisis Rampant inflation, a weakening currency and falling foreign exchange reserves mean that Venezuela has all of the ingredients for a balance of payments crisis. We expect GDP to contract by a cumulative... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Treading water Economic growth in Latin America slowed further in the first half of 2014 and we see little chance of a strong rebound over the coming quarters. The key props to strong growth in the past decade are... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
