Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equities in the Gulf hit by falling oil prices Despite recovering a little in recent days, it’s been a torrid month for stock markets across the MENA region. In part, this has reflected the broader sell-off in EM financial markets. But in the Gulf... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Sep.) Japan's trade deficit edged higher in September, against expectations, but a weaker yen, falling commodity prices and the sluggishness of domestic demand should combine to deliver a narrower deficit... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf: Fall in oil prices unlikely to trigger another “lost decade” Concerns that the recent fall in oil prices could lead to another “lost decade” for the Gulf, similar to the 1980s, are probably overdone. The region’s large accumulated savings mean that most... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Tighter policy in Ghana to lead to further growth slowdown While Ghana’s authorities continue discussions with the IMF about a possible programme, the macroeconomic situation in the country appears to be getting worse. We suspect that the eventual tightening... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Sep.) & FX reserves (Q3) Credit growth slowed further last month, on the back of continued efforts by policymakers to address credit risks. Meanwhile, the fall in China's FX reserves reflects a stronger dollar, not FX sales... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Inflation still likely to moderate despite recent yen weakness The impact of the recent weakening of the yen on consumer prices will be dampened by lower crude oil prices. The upshot is that CPI inflation is still likely to moderate towards year-end rather than... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the weaker yen doing more harm than good? The weaker yen hasn’t resulted in the hoped-for improvement in export competitiveness. It has boosted corporate profits, but the pass-through to business investment has been weaker than usual... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry still struggling Industrial production (IP) growth in the emerging world is very weak. In aggregate terms, EM output grew by just 2.0% y/y in August – the slowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. The... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM bonds continue to underperform? Local currency government bonds in developed economies have typically fared much better than those in emerging economies over the past year. This is evidenced by the fact that the yield of the JP... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields grind lower despite UK economy’s momentum Gilt yields have continued to decline over the last month even though the UK’s economic recovery has maintained its healthy pace and overseas residents have been net sellers of gilts this year. The... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African consumer spending to continue weakening The South African Reserve Bank is set to hike interest rates over the coming months to shore up the currency and counter above-target inflation, but this will hit household spending. Based on a few... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady, if unspectacular, growth ahead Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to see growth accelerate gradually over the next year, helped by a combination of stronger demand from advanced economies and relatively loose monetary... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weaker currencies add to need for tighter monetary policy African currencies have not been immune to the recent sell-off in EM financial markets, raising concern in some countries about rising inflation. In this Watch, we examine which economies are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates in Indonesia to remain on hold for a while yet Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave interest rates on hold despite the slowing economy reflects continued unease over the size of the current account deficit. With the deficit likely to... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ruble’s decline and what it means for Russia The steep fall in the ruble over the past month will affect different parts of the economy in different ways. The government is likely to be one of the major winners. By contrast, consumers are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
