Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Fed hikes trigger another leg down for EM currencies? The US Fed is set to begin raising interest rates in the first half of next year, casting renewed uncertainty over the outlook for EM currencies. But big and necessary adjustments in many currencies... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling oil prices open the door to rate cuts in Mexico Mexico’s growth story has lost some of its shine in recent weeks. We still expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2015. But the recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the fact that fiscal policy is... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira to remain overvalued despite fall in oil prices The latest estimates by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in October suggested that the Turkish lira remains one of the most “fundamentally” overvalued emerging market currencies that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget assumptions already look out of date The government budget for 2015, that was signed by President Putin today, is based on a range of outdated assumptions. Based on current spending plans, we reckon the government is likely to run a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q3 14) Q3’s Swiss GDP figures suggested that the economy is still holding up well against the twin pressures of euro-zone weakness and the strong franc. But the Swiss National Bank may have more work to do... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of cocoa to fall further as the market remains well-supplied Despite concerns about a chocolate shortage, the world cocoa market remains well supplied. With a slightly larger market surplus than originally estimated, and plentiful stocks, we think there is... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the ruble’s latest tumble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few days points to another large increase in interest rates when the central bank’s board meets next week. But the fact that the authorities have so far... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will other European central banks react to ECB QE? The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Limited impact from Chinese rate cut Financial markets in Emerging Asia have on the whole had a fairly quiet month despite the recent Chinese rate cut and the expansion of the Bank of Japan’s programme of quantitative easing. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities surge following rate cut The recent benchmark rate cut triggered sharp gains in China’s stock markets in the last week of November. Meanwhile, although trading volumes in the newly-launched Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the euro fallen far enough? The fall in the euro since the spring looks likely to have at least some upward effect on both the growth of euro-zone exports and the level of euro-zone consumer price inflation. But the ECB should... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors set to flee emerging market assets? October saw net outflows from global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging market (EM) assets for the first time since March. This was primarily driven by net outflows from funds that invest in... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC may be resuming FX intervention There are tentative signs that the People’s Bank (PBOC) has resumed currency intervention. Foreign exchange purchases by all financial institutions, a proxy for purchases by the PBOC, turned positive... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble sell-off eases, while Ukraine’s bonds slump A combination of interest rate hikes, a move towards a fully floating ruble and steps to limit the provision of ruble liquidity appear to have arrested the slump in Russia’s currency. Elsewhere, the... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Retail spending picks up, but recovery uneven There has been a gradual recovery in retail spending in Emerging Asia during 2014. The top performing countries are Indonesia and Malaysia, where retail sales are expanding at a double digit pace. In... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities take another tumble Low oil prices have continued to take their toll on equity markets in the Gulf. Meanwhile, pressure on the Egyptian pound has intensified over the past month and we think the authorities will need to... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
