Global Markets Update What to make of the Fed’s new projections Downward revisions to FOMC participants’ projections for the federal funds rate have triggered a significant rally in Treasuries and taken some heat out of the dollar. But our expectation is that the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB will have to act against the franc before long The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflects the slight softening of the franc over recent weeks. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency to... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the stronger pound undermine hotel returns? For many Europeans, the cost of visiting the UK has jumped by almost 20% over the past 18 months and almost 10% since Christmas. Yet the evidence shows that currency shifts have a negligible impact on... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will have to act against the franc before long The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflects the slight softening of the franc over recent weeks. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency to... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Krona’s rise forces Sweden’s Riksbank to ease policy again The Swedish Riksbank unexpectedly loosened monetary policy further today, citing the deflationary risks from the stronger krona, and said it was prepared to do more if needed. With the ECB’s QE likely... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade & Construction (Jan.) January’s euro-zone trade data suggested that the region’s exports are still not benefitting substantially from the weakness of the euro. 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead A confluence of domestic and external factors will cut Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2015 to its slowest rate this century. Low commodity prices will reduce export earnings and force fiscal... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Floating currencies in the Gulf a long way off Recent calls for the Gulf countries to ditch their dollar pegs and allow their currencies to float are likely to fall on deaf ears. While there are some arguments in favour of shifting to more... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Krona’s rise forces Sweden’s Riksbank to ease policy again The Swedish Riksbank unexpectedly loosened monetary policy further today, citing the deflationary risks from the stronger krona, and said it was prepared to do more if needed. With the ECB’s QE likely... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the New Zealand dollar remain overvalued? The New Zealand dollar’s real effective exchange rate (REER) is currently almost 18% above its average of the past ten years. On this metric it has been one of the most overvalued developed market... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Political risks may check sterling’s rally Although sterling has shot up by nearly 5% on a trade-weighted basis since the start of the year, there are several impediments to a further significant appreciation over the coming months. The... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds fall further as debt talks start The start of debt restructuring negotiations in Ukraine has been accompanied by further losses on the country’s foreign currency government bonds. Meanwhile, currencies in Central Europe have weakened... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worried should we be about the strong dollar? Fears over the outlook for emerging markets have resurfaced over the past few days, with the latest concerns focusing on the impact that a strong dollar will have on EM balance sheets. In our view... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policymakers strike sanguine note If there is one key message on the economy to take away from the National People’s Congress it is that the government is aware of downside risks to growth but confident that it has the tools and the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices wilt in face of surging dollar Most commodity prices fell further this week, undermined by the continued strength of the US currency and soft economic data from China. The prices of crude oils, especially the traditional US... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industry made a disappointing start to the year, but with demand from the US likely to strengthen and a weaker peso set to boost the external competitiveness of exporters, we still expect the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
