Asia Economics Update Is a weak rupiah a threat to Indonesia? Policymakers in Indonesia should welcome, rather than fear, a weaker rupiah. Not only is foreign currency debt relatively low, but there is little sign that a fall in the currency is pushing up... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The dollar and the US stock market – a historical perspective The performance of the US stock market has varied significantly during the four periods in which the dollar has strengthened considerably since it became a free-floating currency in the early 1970s... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigerian politics take centre stage All eyes are focused on Nigeria’s election on 28th March, which will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in productivity growth could be pivotal Fed officials haven't had a lot to say about the slump in productivity growth but, just as the upsurge in productivity growth in the 1990s was crucial in allowing the Fed to leave rates lower for... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shaping up well at the start of 2015 Despite concerns about deflation, a recession in Russia and sluggishness in the euro-zone, the latest data out of Central Europe have been surprisingly robust. Industrial production growth has... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s rise in the German Ifo index provided further evidence that the recovery in the euro-zone’s largest economy continued in Q1 as firms shrugged off fears over Greece and the weaker euro started... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia refuses to budge Even though oil prices continue to languish at around $55pb, there is still no sign that Saudi Arabia will give in to pressure from other OPEC members to cut oil output. Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currency strength one reason Asian rates will stay low, for now Currency strength in Emerging Asia has been a factor in the region's recent wave of policy loosening. It appears to be undermining export competitiveness and has helped push inflation down further... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports take a turn for the worse Emerging Asia’s exports have taken a turn for the worse in recent months. Leaving out China, the region’s merchandise exports, measured in US dollar terms, contracted at the sharpest annual rate in... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the turn in the dollar The last few days have seen a sharp reversal in the tone of commentary on the dollar: speculation about a surge to parity against the euro has been replaced by talk that the broad-based rally is over... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece still hanging by a thread While there have been few firm developments in the ongoing Greek crisis in recent weeks, the general news on the progress towards plugging the country’s short-term financing hole and finding a lasting... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency weakness concentrated in low-saving EMs The hardest hit EM currencies over the course of this year have been those of the economies with low domestic savings rates. In the absence of reforms to address this frailty, the currencies of low... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fed policy unlikely to have major impact on rupee The Indian rupee has taken Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in its stride, with the currency dropping only fractionally against the US dollar since then. Looking ahead, the economy is in much better shape to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Stronger dollar dominates Commodity prices have been dragged lower across the board by the strength of the dollar over the last month. Concerns about Chinese demand have also weighed on prices, particularly of industrial... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fed tightening still a near-term threat, but can be offset The gains in commodity prices after yesterday’s dovish statement could soon be more than reversed if the Fed presses ahead and raises rates earlier than the markets now expect, especially if the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
