Europe Economics Weekly Oil and euro boosts to growth will fade next year We have revised our forecasts for euro-zone GDP growth higher to reflect the positive effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro. But growth could slow again next year as those positive... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Outbound FDI won't eclipse inward FDI any time soon Contrary to what is widely believed, China should continue to attract positive net foreign direct investment inflows for the foreseeable future, which should help spur further renminbi appreciation. 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth to recover after weak Q1 For a second successive year, global GDP growth dropped sharply in Q1 due to a slowdown in the US and China. But business surveys, which may be a better gauge of the underlying health of the economy... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Big falls in the Brazilian real are probably behind us The Brazilian real has come under renewed pressure over the past couple of months as markets have responded to an ugly mix of a stagnant economy and a deepening political crisis that is threatening to... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US corporate bonds should weather Fed tightening Although Fed tightening could dull investors’ appetite for risk, its onset has not tended to push up the spreads of US corporate bonds over Treasuries much in the past. We expect a similar outcome... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will Russia’s sovereign credit spread keep falling? Russia’s bond market continued to fare well in March. This may have reflected a growing sense that the risk of a financial crisis in the country has passed in the wake of emergency rate hikes late... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB trumps Bank of Japan? Although the asset purchase programme announced by the ECB this year is smaller than that announced by the Bank of Japan in 2013, the initial response of financial markets has, if anything, been... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI won’t need to follow the Fed The first rate hike in the US is edging closer, but India’s dramatically improved external position and the fact that the rupee has strengthened in recent months suggest that the Reserve Bank of India... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook In the footsteps of the Fed? The recent run of poor data from around the emerging world is likely to set the tone for the rest of this year. Brazil’s struggles look set to continue, Russia is likely to slip deeper into recession... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets still under-pricing “Grexit” risks The latest surveys continue to suggest that only a minority of investors expect Greece to leave the euro within the next twelve months. Admittedly, the proportion is still significant, which shows... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers drive the recovery The euro-zone economic recovery has gained some pace thanks to a pick-up in consumer spending growth. The annual growth rate of retail sales volumes rose to near a ten-year high in January, due partly... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency rout rules out further policy easing Currencies across Latin America have continued to weaken against the dollar over the past month. Concerns that this could trigger a spate of crises in the region seem overdone. However, one... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currencies and equity markets drop back Most equity markets and currencies in Emerging Asia fell last month, although in the majority of cases the declines were relatively small. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets unfazed by Nigeria election so far The surprisingly smooth organisation of Nigeria’s 28 th March election has had little effect on the country’s financial markets so far. A violent crisis remains possible, however, if the losing... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Yemen crisis weighs on region’s equity markets The unfolding crisis in Yemen and the launch of air strikes by Saudi Arabia and its allies on the Houthi rebels has triggered a sell-off in equity markets across the MENA region over the past week or... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is a weak rupiah a threat to Indonesia? Policymakers in Indonesia should welcome, rather than fear, a weaker rupiah. Not only is foreign currency debt relatively low, but there is little sign that a fall in the currency is pushing up... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
