US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a one-year low of 53.5 in January, from 55.1, reflects the recent surge in the dollar and the weakness of global demand. 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equity markets make winning start to 2015 Emerging Asian equity markets have got off to a strong start to the year, while the performance of Asian currencies has been much more mixed. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Are very low bond yields here to stay? We forecast US Treasury yields to rise only gradually amid the onset of tighter Fed policy, while the yields of governments bonds in many other developed economies should remain very low against the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities hit choppy waters Chinese equities turned more volatile over the past month, and there are signs that some steam may be coming out of the market. Meanwhile, market interest rates have been relatively stable, with a... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much further will Moscow rental values fall? Despite a fall in USD-denominated Moscow all-property rents of 16% in Q4, currency depreciation means that rents rose in ruble terms by 19%. That seems unsustainable. Short-term uncertainty... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rate cuts to be exception rather than rule Expectations that the fall in oil prices will trigger a wave of interest rate cuts across Asia are probably wide of the mark. Admittedly, Pakistan, India and Singapore have each loosened monetary... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee strength supports case for policy loosening The rupee has been among the world’s best performing currencies so far this year, due to a combination of a narrowing trade deficit and strong foreign inflows into local equities. This has given the... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More to cheer than fear from “currency wars” The latest monetary easing in Europe and Asia has revived talk of “currency wars” and fuelled concerns about the impact of dollar strength on the US economy. But much of this talk seems unduly... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big a buffer do Russia’s FX reserves provide? We’re often asked about the extent to which Russia’s sizeable foreign exchange reserves provide a buffer against lower oil prices and capital flight and for how long they might last. There are lots of... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will the surge in the EMBI+ spread be reversed? The “stripped” spread over US Treasuries of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has risen by a further 40bp over the past month to around 4.2%, well above... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound has further to run We think the depreciation of the Egyptian pound over the past week has further to go and the currency might plausibly weaken to around 8.25/US$ by the end of this year, a 10% fall against the dollar... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets too sanguine about contagion from Greece? Despite concerns over Greece’s future within the euro-zone, the yields on government bonds in the rest of peripheral and southern Europe have generally remained low and close to those of Germany. This... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira remains under pressure The Nigerian naira has remained under pressure over the past month and we expect that it will fall further as foreign reserves dwindle and the currency continues to adjust to lower oil prices. We have... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB’s QE keep the euro under pressure? While the onset of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) is likely to weigh on the euro in time, exchange rates are two sides of a coin, so the fate of the currency will also depend on the prospects for... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength puts exporters under pressure China’s exporters continued to gain global market share last year but the recent sharp rise in the renminbi against other emerging market currencies is likely to put them under pressure in 2015. US... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Impact of weaker yen on export volumes remains elusive The rise in Japan’s exports to the US appears to reflect the strength of the recovery there rather than yen weakness. Indeed, evidence that the plunge in the yen is boosting export volumes remains... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
