Europe Economics Update Greek IOUs may be the first step towards the exit With a bailout payment still not forthcoming, the Greek Government might have to resort to IOUs to pay public sector workers. While they could serve as a brief stop-gap, they would not solve Greece’s... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling vulnerable to renewed dollar weakness Sterling has rallied to a six-month high against the US dollar, reflecting relief that the UK is not mired in a period of post-election political negotiations and some slightly less dovish noises from... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland: An example for Greece to follow? Iceland’s healthy economic recovery after its financial collapse in 2008 highlights the attractions of currency depreciation, if necessary accompanied by capital controls. Such a path has its economic... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery stalls as Brazil suffers renewed downturn The recovery that appeared to be underway in Latin America at the end of last year has faded in recent months, with several of the region’s economies experiencing renewed downturns. The latest... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why the Gulf’s dollar pegs are here to stay The sharp fall in oil prices since the middle of last year has thrust the Gulf’s dollar pegs under the spotlight but there are plenty of reasons to think that the risk of currency devaluation remains... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fresh euro weakness should buoy German equities Although it has still been one of the best-performing developed world stock markets this year, the DAX index has come off the boil over the past month. We do not expect its recent weakness to continue... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US Employment Report (Apr.) The monthly US employment report can often trigger large movements in global commodity prices. April’s data, released today, have so far been an exception. Nonetheless, the numbers support our view... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update UK election eases political uncertainty, but sterling risks remain Financial markets have initially welcomed the clarity and continuity resulting from the Conservative Party’s unexpectedly decisive victory in the UK general election. Political risks have undoubtedly... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will have to ease more before too long The Bank of Japan’s decision not to step up the pace of easing at the end of April has prompted us to pare back our expectations for yen depreciation in the near term. But we still think that... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will tighter Fed policy rattle the markets? We forecast that US Treasury yields will increase further as the FOMC raises the federal funds rate more rapidly than policymakers, investors and the consensus of economists envisage. By contrast, we... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Preview: Disappointing as well as “dull” While Tuesday’s Federal Budget may well live up to the “dull” label slapped on it by the Prime Minister, the failure to provide any extra support to the economy will be disappointing. This would place... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC turns a little less dovish The press release accompanying the Czech National Bank’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate and the exchange rate ceiling were left unchanged, was dovish but less so than in March. As a result... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s dong devaluation not about export competitiveness Today’s 1% devaluation of the dong by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is unlikely to provide much of a boost to exports, as some have suggested. Looking ahead, we are only expecting minor adjustments... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Policy unchanged in Norway, but rate cut still on the cards The Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but we suspect that a weakening labour market and faltering economic growth will prompt a rate cut at its next meeting in June. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Few signs of election uncertainty undermining recovery Although GDP posted its smallest quarterly rise since 2012 in the first quarter of this year, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. The business surveys suggest that Q1’s 0.3... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
