Global Economics Update Risk of “Grexit” casts a shadow over global growth prospects Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that activity has picked up a bit in the euro-zone and remained solid in the US. However, the Greek crisis poses a growing threat to the outlook. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will sterling’s renewed strength be maintained? Sterling is one of the only major currencies to have appreciated against the US dollar over the past month. However, we doubt its renewed strength will last. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dip into deflation will be brief This week we expect to learn that, principally because of the recent collapse in energy prices, US headline inflation plummeted into negative territory in January. Once the temporary effects from... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Sterling’s strength unlikely to last Sterling has been one of the few major currencies to appreciate against the US dollar over the past month. As a result the real effective exchange rate is now around 5% above its ten-year average and... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Regional inflation heading in opposite directions Inflation across the emerging world has been heading in different directions in recent months. In Latin America and Emerging Europe it has risen, led by increases in regulated prices in Brazil and the... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout if Greece left the euro? If Greece is forced out of the single currency there would clearly be major political and economic implications for the euro-zone itself, and we suspect there would initially be turmoil in global... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) With mortgage credit conditions loosening, the labour market on fire and household formation strengthening, January’s decline in housing starts should soon give way to solid gains in homebuilding. 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee continues to outperform The rupee has been the best performing major EM currency so far this year. This is in part due to falling commodity prices which have helped to lower India’s import bill, but it is also the result of... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has been behind capital flight from Russia? It has been suggested in some quarters that huge capital outflows from Russia last year were largely due to external debt repayments and thus should not be seen as a major cause for concern. But while... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela’s currency crisis: a primer The collapse in oil prices will cause the economic and financial crisis in Venezuela to deepen over the course of this year. In this Focus we answer a series of key questions that we have received... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar likely to dent US soybean exports US wheat exports have struggled this year as the rising US dollar reduces competitiveness. We think the same could happen to soybean exports as the South American harvest gets under way. 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Time is running out for Greece The failure of the Eurogroup last week to agree even on steps for further discussions on Greece does not bode well for the emergence of a full solution at Monday’s meeting. This could prompt nerves... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Record-breaking quarter for euro-zone investment Euro-zone commercial property investment volumes reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2014. Such strong investment flows meant that competition for assets was strong, which in turn led to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Concerns about yen unlikely to prevent more BoJ easing We doubt that concerns about rising import costs caused by a renewed weakening of the yen will prevent the Bank of Japan from announcing more stimulus in April. Instead, we maintain our view that... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Greece leave the euro? With euro-zone leaders struggling to reach a workable solution to Greece’s debt problems, the chances of a Greek exit from the currency union have risen. In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
