Asia Economics Weekly Where next for Indonesia’s current account? We see little prospect of an improvement in Indonesia’s current account over the next couple of years. This could leave the rupiah vulnerable when the Fed starts to tighten policy later this year... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is a recovery in exports finally underway? One feature that the recovery has been lacking for a long time is a pick-up in exports. But last week’s GDP figures offered some encouragement that the much-anticipated rebalancing of the economy is... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equity markets continue good run Equity markets in Emerging Asia recorded another month of solid gains in February. Currencies did not fare as well, particularly the Indonesian rupiah, which has continued to weaken against the US... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Delay to Nigeria’s election puts naira under pressure The delay to Nigeria’s election and the controversy over the alleged misappropriation of oil revenues have cast the spotlight on the country’s weak governance. After the decision to delay the election... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Funding costs set to fall Market interest rates rose over the past month despite a required reserve ratio cut and repeated liquidity injections by the People’s Bank. We expect conditions to ease in coming weeks as demand for... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, but will rise within 12 months The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that currency weakness and the return of inflationary pressures will prompt the bank to raise... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the tide turned for the Danish krone? The recent sharp drop in the Danish krone back to its central rate against the euro suggests that the Danish Nationalbank has been successful in preserving its currency peg. But the upward pressure on... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America has turned a corner, but recovery is uneven Growth in Latin America appears to have picked up in recent months. Our proprietary GDP Tracker suggests that the region’s economy expanded by about 1.5% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, having... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Has the tide turned for the Danish krone? The recent sharp drop in the Danish krone back to its central rate against the euro suggests that the Danish Nationalbank has been successful in preserving its currency peg. But the upward pressure on... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Election worries hit Nigeria Sentiment towards Nigeria has soured following news that presidential elections scheduled for earlier this month will be postponed until 28th March due to security concerns. We expect that the naira... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Improvement in balance of payments position here to stay Eighteen months ago the rupee plunged to a record low against the US dollar as concerns over India’s external vulnerabilities made it one of the hardest-hit economies during the “taper tantrum”. Since... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets brush off concerns over Greece Financial markets in Emerging Europe have brushed off renewed concerns over Greece – indeed, equity markets in most countries have rallied over the course of this month and currencies have generally... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A parallel currency is not the solution for Greece The idea that Greece could introduce a parallel domestic currency to improve its competitiveness while still honouring its international debts is not the solution to the country’s problems. Indeed, if... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly More on the rising risk and effects of a Grexit The risk of a Grexit has risen further still this week with the positions of the Eurogroup and the Greek Government seeming to be as far apart as ever. Even if a deal is cobbled together at the latest... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
