Global Economics Update Should we worry about dollar strength? The surge in the US dollar to multi-year highs has triggered many worries, including the threat to the US recovery, heightened risks of global deflation via the impact on commodity prices, and the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greece & deflation re-ignite the euro-zone crisis? The combination of Greece’s renewed problems and the onset of deflation is a very toxic one for the euro-zone. At best, it is likely to keep economic growth in the region fairly subdued. At worst, it... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls This note summarises our key calls on major economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. In particular, we forecast US interest rates to rise sooner and further than... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How low will the euro go? Rising expectations for US interest rates and an escalation of the Greek crisis could push the euro down to parity against the US dollar and beyond. But we expect it to stage a partial recovery in... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Fragile EM currencies set for further weakness The fall in emerging market currencies since the beginning of this year has picked up pace this month. Two main forces appear to have been at work. First, the depreciation of the euro has led the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the fallout from the EM currency slump Most EM currencies have weakened substantially against the US dollar this year. For a few EMs with large dollar debts, such as Turkey, this could lead to financial strains. And the impact of currency... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can commodity prices resist further dollar strength? The prospect of further gains for the US currency remains a major headwind for commodity prices. However, the dollar has already appreciated a long way and, if it continues to climb, much would still... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Swiss franc’s recent depreciation unlikely to last The Swiss franc has depreciated against the euro in the past month, despite the fact that the euro itself has weakened on a trade-weighted basis. This appears to be partly a correction following the... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Misery index on track for 50-year low Households are considerably better off than they were just a year or two ago. Indeed, the so-called “misery index” – a sum of the prevailing inflation and unemployment rates – has halved over the last... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 14) The Swiss economy posted another healthy expansion in Q4, with both net exports and domestic demand continuing to rise. But the franc’s surge since then may well see the economy back in recession... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble rally largely explained by oil rebound The ruble has sold off today but this follows strong gains in recent weeks that made it the best performing EM currency in February. There are several factors that could explain the rebound in the... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 10 key calls on Australia and New Zealand Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in ourAustralia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients today), but in this note we highlight ten... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Time for EM equities to shine? After a tough end to last year, emerging market equities have continued to pick up over the past month. Admittedly, they have lagged behind equities in developed markets, which have performed very... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
