Africa Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead A confluence of domestic and external factors will cut Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2015 to its slowest rate this century. Low commodity prices will reduce export earnings and force fiscal... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Floating currencies in the Gulf a long way off Recent calls for the Gulf countries to ditch their dollar pegs and allow their currencies to float are likely to fall on deaf ears. While there are some arguments in favour of shifting to more... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Krona’s rise forces Sweden’s Riksbank to ease policy again The Swedish Riksbank unexpectedly loosened monetary policy further today, citing the deflationary risks from the stronger krona, and said it was prepared to do more if needed. With the ECB’s QE likely... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the New Zealand dollar remain overvalued? The New Zealand dollar’s real effective exchange rate (REER) is currently almost 18% above its average of the past ten years. On this metric it has been one of the most overvalued developed market... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Political risks may check sterling’s rally Although sterling has shot up by nearly 5% on a trade-weighted basis since the start of the year, there are several impediments to a further significant appreciation over the coming months. The... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds fall further as debt talks start The start of debt restructuring negotiations in Ukraine has been accompanied by further losses on the country’s foreign currency government bonds. Meanwhile, currencies in Central Europe have weakened... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worried should we be about the strong dollar? Fears over the outlook for emerging markets have resurfaced over the past few days, with the latest concerns focusing on the impact that a strong dollar will have on EM balance sheets. In our view... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policymakers strike sanguine note If there is one key message on the economy to take away from the National People’s Congress it is that the government is aware of downside risks to growth but confident that it has the tools and the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices wilt in face of surging dollar Most commodity prices fell further this week, undermined by the continued strength of the US currency and soft economic data from China. The prices of crude oils, especially the traditional US... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industry made a disappointing start to the year, but with demand from the US likely to strengthen and a weaker peso set to boost the external competitiveness of exporters, we still expect the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Now is the euro low enough? The drop in the euro to a 12-year low against the US dollar should clearly provide some support to both activity and inflation in the euro-zone. But it would be wrong to think that its effects are... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the pound riding for a fall? Sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about a hung parliament, EU exit and the current account deficit. But it is hard to tell when these concerns will bite, if they will at all. And in the meantime... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah weakness is unlikely to revive Indonesia’s economy The weakness of the Indonesian rupiah is unlikely to kick-start a recovery in the country’s non-commodity export sector. For one thing, it has not left Indonesian exporters looking any more... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency concerns prevent interest rate cut in Peru The fact that the Peruvian nuevo sol has been caught up in the latest EM currency sell-off probably convinced policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.25% last night. But with economic... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Strong pound masks emerging election concerns On the face of it, markets appear to be taking the prospect of an inconclusive outcome from May’s general election in their stride. Indeed, markets have moved to price in a slightly faster pace of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies unlikely to go into freefall All of Latin America’s currencies will probably weaken further against the dollar in the near-term as we approach a first interest rate hike by the Fed. But with most currencies no longer appearing to... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
