India Economics Update Rupee likely to weaken only gradually The Indian rupee has rallied in the past few days, but we expect the currency to come under some pressure as the US Fed begins to tighten policy later this year. However, given the huge improvement in... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Treasuries vulnerable to a reassessment of Fed policy The path of the federal funds rate that is implied by the yields of US Treasuries is much gentler than the one that we project. This leads us to forecast that the 10-year yield will end 2015 higher... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for US Treasuries We have revised up our end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 50bp each, to 3.0% and 3.5%. Our previous forecasts for the yield, which is now around 2.3%, had been based... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reviewing the lessons from past devaluations Devaluations have generally had a more positive impact on growth in economies which have a lot of spare capacity, where monetary conditions have been excessively tight and where a debt write-off is... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB has more work to do in its fight against the franc The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals a further rate cut this year We suspect that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank, from 1.25% to 1.00%, won’t be the last loosening of monetary policy this year. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB has more work to do in its fight against the franc The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further big falls in EM currencies unlikely, but expect volatility The Greek crisis appears to be coming to a head, but so far at least there has been very little negative impact on emerging market currencies. Should Greece default, and especially if that entails... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s weak growth in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the boost to industry from the lower oil price and euro at the start of the year may already be fizzling out. 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for EM dollar-denominated sovereign bonds? Emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds have significantly underperformed their local currency counterparts since the end of April. However, this has generally been due to a surge in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Demand for gilts weakens despite soft economic news Gilt yields have risen further over the last month despite the news that the UK has experienced deflation and the deterioration of some recent economic growth indicators. Their rise may partly reflect... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya hikes rates to shore up shilling Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee hiked its key interest rate by 150bps today, a clear attempt to signal that the bank is serious about curbing high inflation and protecting the rapidly-depreciating... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for crisis-stricken Venezuela? With Venezuela’s economic crisis intensifying, attention is starting to focus on how the country might get out of this mess. Two options have been suggested in recent weeks – one is the establishment... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has food price inflation reached a trough? There are good reasons to think that food price inflation has reached a trough. That said, intense supermarket competition seems unlikely to lift soon, meaning that inflation in the sector could... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s trio of economic tailwinds to fade Spain has benefitted from a trio of temporary tailwinds over the last year: the weaker euro, falling oil prices and a pause in fiscal austerity. So official forecasts may be wrong to assume that the... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
