Emerging Markets Economics Update No need to fret about recent currency declines Most EM currencies have fallen over the past month, with many now at or close to multi-year lows against the US dollar. For the majority of countries the economic impact of recent currency weakness is... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian debt fears ease a little, but default still likely Fears about a near-term and potentially messy default by Ukraine eased a little this month, providing some respite for the country’s sovereign dollar debt. But even so, some form of default still... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies suffer Frontier market currencies are having a difficult time, with only three of the 31 currencies that we follow gaining ground against the US dollar over the past month. The biggest decline has been in... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China set for further widening of renminbi band China may be on the cusp of again widening the renminbi’s trading band with the dollar. The lesson of previous similar moves is that they have next to no impact on the medium-term path of the currency... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek deal brings sigh of relief Greece’s move towards a third bailout has brought relief to Central and South Eastern Europe where concerns about contagion were very real, particularly in the Balkans. While it is too early to say... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The unusual exchange rate pass-through The muted rise in import prices over the past year despite the near-15% fall in the Australian dollar suggests that the weaker dollar won’t boost underlying inflation by as much as the Reserve Bank of... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor How vulnerable are US equities to tighter Fed policy? Some see tighter monetary policy as the biggest threat to the US stock market. But its onset did not have a major effect during the last three major Fed tightening cycles. What’s more, the fact that... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How low could gold go? In an earlier Precious Metals Update, “Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold” (13 th March), we suggested that the gold price could fall as low as $850 per ounce in a worst case scenario... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Czech policymakers respond to the rising koruna? The strength of the Czech koruna has raised concerns at the National Bank about a fresh slowdown in inflation and, in the first instance, we think the MPC will try to ease pressure on the currency by... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Heading towards 2% The 0.25% reduction in interest rates, to 3.00% from 3.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today is the second in a series of cuts that we think could take interest rates all the way... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s bailout bad for the euro? The recent decline in the euro suggests that the markets see the new Greek bailout plan as less favourable for the single currency than a swift Grexit. But the driving force on the euro over the next... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank not backtracking on ruble free float Recent concerns that Russia’s central bank is abandoning the ruble free float seem overdone. While policymakers will undoubtedly keep a close eye on the ruble and intervene on the FX market in order... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Grexit or not – euro-zone equities should shine We expect the US FOMC to tighten policy faster and further than most envisage and think this will drive both the dollar and US Treasury yields higher. By contrast, we expect the yields of governments... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Not out of the woods yet The rapid appreciation of the cedi over the past month is a positive sign, but it should not be taken to mean that Ghana has successfully resolved its economic problems. The country’s economy remains... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to recover when higher US interest rates priced in We think that sentiment towards gold is now excessively negative. Nonetheless, given the difficulty in valuing an asset that pays no income and the importance of safe-haven demand, which is also... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the costs and benefits of a weaker peso The drop in the peso to a record low against the dollar in recent weeks has rekindled concerns about what impact this will have on Mexico’s economy. In practice, however, the economics of currency... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
