Commodities Update Industrial commodities set for strong recovery into year-end The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) Q2’s GDP release revealed that Switzerland has so far avoided a recession despite the strength of the franc. But it seems very unlikely that positive contributions from nettrade can be sustained and... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Equity sell-off to reverse soon The recent equity market sell-off in Japan, which originated in China, does not reflect a major deterioration in the economic outlook for Japan. In fact, there are signs that Chinese demand for... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets shift too far towards expecting low rates to last For many years we have argued that UK markets were pricing in too early and too fast a tightening of monetary policy. But now, markets, which currently expect the MPC to leave interest rates on hold... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Foreigners head for the exits The financial turmoil of the past month in Asia has seen foreign investors scramble for the exit. Net foreign outflows from the region’s equity markets have reached nearly US$10bn so far in August... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Little chance of a Hong Kong de-pegging Although there has been a surge of speculation in the wake of China’s exchange rate move that Hong Kong could abandon its US dollar peg, we expect the peg to remain in place well into the next decade. 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish bond issuance restarts, but rate hikes a long way off Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Back in the spotlight Latin America has found itself back under the spotlight in recent weeks, this time as concerns over the economic outlook for China – the largest trading partner for most countries in the region – have... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Equity valuations no longer stretched after August sell-off Emerging Market (EM) equity valuations are no longer stretched either in an absolute or relative sense following the summer sell-off. Once the recent volatility in global markets settles down, we... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe weathers EM sell-off well Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Trade rebound suggests world economy is down but not out 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro’s rise stall the recovery? Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update 1MDB scandal highlights problems that hold Malaysia back The scandal over 1MDB is not the biggest threat to Malaysia’s short-term economic outlook or the main cause of the recent collapse in the ringgit. However, it does shine a light on institutional... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug) & GDP Breakdown (Q2) August’s German Ifo survey suggested that GDP growth had continued to accelerate in Q3. But expectations for the future were weakening even before the latest rise in the euro, suggesting that growth... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sticking with (most of) our forecasts for developed markets We have reviewed our key forecasts for developed markets in light of the renewed slump in China’s stock market and related panic. Despite the turmoil, for now we are retaining our existing forecasts... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Six glimmers of light Today has obviously been an awful day in the markets, particularly for equities and industrial commodities. But stepping back from the headlines, six more positive points are worth stressing. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
