Asia Chart Pack Risk of “Grexit” hangs over Asia’s export outlook The direct links between Emerging Asia and Greece are very limited. Exports to Greece account for only a tiny proportion of regional GDP, while banking sector ties are negligible. What matters more... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Private consumption after a currency crisis Contrary to conventional wisdom, economic recoveries following a large devaluation have not always resulted from a surge in net exports. Instead, they have often been driven by rising consumption... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Outperformance of EM local currency bonds set to continue We expect emerging market (EM) local currency bonds to continue outperforming their hard currencycounterparts over the next eighteen months as EM interest rates remain lower than the marketgenerally... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets shrug off threat of Fed hikes Markets in Latin America have shrugged off signs that the US Fed will begin to raise interest rates over the coming months. While most currencies have weakened in recent weeks, the falls have been... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap European frontiers vulnerable to mounting threat of “Grexit” The growing threat of a Greek exit from the euro-zone has cast a shadow over the outlook for European frontier markets. Admittedly, the reaction in financial markets has so far been muted. And the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Muted reaction as Saudi stock market opens up The formal opening up of Saudi Arabia’s stock market earlier this month was adamp squib, as equities remained flat. Elsewhere, stocks in Egypt have been the worst-performers over the past month, while... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Muted reaction as Saudi stock market opens up The formal opening up of Saudi Arabia’s stock market earlier this month was adamp squib, as equities remained flat. Elsewhere, stocks in Egypt have been the worst-performers over the past month, while... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets right to expect slow monetary tightening The prevailing view in the markets that the MPC can raise interest rates extremely gradually over the coming years seems right to us. Granted, wage growth has begun to pick up and the Fed looks set to... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Scrapping the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t boost bank lending A new proposal to do away with the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t relax the primary constraints on bank lending. It should, however, mean that a greater share of lending is directed towards smaller and... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Further FX restrictions a worrying sign The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to further tighten restrictions on foreign exchange market will not succeed in reducing demand for dollars. Faced with weak export earnings and tumbling FX... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am markets shrug off threat of Fed hikes Markets in Latin America have shrugged off signs that the US Fed will begin to raise interest rates over the coming months. While most currencies have weakened in recent weeks, the falls have been... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What explains the recovery in the euro? Despite the crisis in Greece the euro remains near multi-week highs against the dollar. Some have suggested that the euro has actually benefited from the uncertainty, due to the unwinding of short... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee likely to weaken only gradually The Indian rupee has rallied in the past few days, but we expect the currency to come under some pressure as the US Fed begins to tighten policy later this year. However, given the huge improvement in... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Treasuries vulnerable to a reassessment of Fed policy The path of the federal funds rate that is implied by the yields of US Treasuries is much gentler than the one that we project. This leads us to forecast that the 10-year yield will end 2015 higher... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for US Treasuries We have revised up our end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 50bp each, to 3.0% and 3.5%. Our previous forecasts for the yield, which is now around 2.3%, had been based... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reviewing the lessons from past devaluations Devaluations have generally had a more positive impact on growth in economies which have a lot of spare capacity, where monetary conditions have been excessively tight and where a debt write-off is... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
