Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solving Australia’s latest confidence conundrum Some simple but effective analysis proves that pretty much all of the recent rise in Australian business confidence relative to consumer confidence can be explained by the recent weakening in the... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been three of the worst-performing major currencies so far this year. Despite the fact that they have already fallen a long way, we expect them to... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) May’s euro-zone goods trade data suggested that the depreciation of the euro over thepast year is still only providing a modest boost to export growth. 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russian industry? The collapse in Russian industrial output in the second quarter appears to have been driven by the unwinding of one-off supports to a couple of sectors, as well further weakness in domestic demand... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Jun.) & FX reserves (Q2) Headline credit growth slowed again last month, but the data are nonetheless consistent with a stepped up pace of policy support. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange reserves hints at... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro still likely to fall further The euro remains vulnerable to a resurgence of uncertainty over Greece’s membership of the single currency and the risks of contagion. But even if “Grexit” were off the table completely, the prospect... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Weak shilling prompts rate hike Today’s decision to hike interest rates by 150bp reflects the Bank of Uganda’s concerns about currency weakness. But with export prices subdued and political risk rising, we expect that the shilling... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Long-term outlook still positive Kenya has been in the headlines for all the wrongreasons over the past few months, and its economy is struggling. But while the country faces realproblems, we still believe that the economy holds... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity sell-off is a Chinese, not EM, phenomenon Despite a rebound in recent days, Chinese equities have slumped since the middle June. Still, the Shanghai Composite is some 90% higher than a year ago, and there is little sign that the sell-off has... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the lower dollar prevent further rate cuts? Since the recent sharp weakening in both the Australian and New Zealand dollars is being driven by the deteriorating economic outlook for each economy, the depreciating currencies are unlikely to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Grexit” and the channels of potential contagion to Emerging Europe The mechanisms through which the deepening crisis in Greece could spill over to banking sectors in Emerging Europe are complex and commonly misunderstood. However, as we explain in this Watch, they... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s inflation data from Mexico contain no signs that a weaker peso is fuelling price pressures. With inflation still below target, policymakers have room to keep interest rates low even if the Fed... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the euro remain resilient in the event of a Grexit? The resilience of the euro against the dollar to the deepening crisis in Greece – the exchange rate is currently close to its level at the end of May – has probably been due to a combination of... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does Plan B for Greece look like? EC President Jean-Claude Juncker’s claim that Greece’s creditors now have a “detailed Grexit scenario” may be a bluff to strengthen their bargaining position. But it is not hard to imagine what the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the euro-zone’s next weakest link? Although the ECB’s OMT programme may allow Portugal to weather a Grexit, the country still faces serious challenges that might jeopardise the country’s long-term position within the currency union. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
