Europe Economics Update Can the ECB really cut rates even further? While we have argued for some time that the ECB will expand its asset purchases in December, we now expect it to cut its deposit rate further into negative territory too. This seems unlikely to have... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank loosens policy but still more needed The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Commodity currencies may have found a floor Our forecast that the prices of many natural resources will edge a little higher over the next couple of years suggests that the downside for commodity currencies will be limited even after the Fed... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak inflation expectations add to pressure on ECB The dovish stance taken by the ECB in recent weeks has partly reflected its fear that inflation expectations have become unanchored from the near-2% target. Such concerns are justified, supporting... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Vietnam and Bangladesh exports bucking the trend Fossil fuels should continue to be the world’s most important energy source for the foreseeable future. However, renewable energy production will grow rapidly and become an increasingly large part of... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Cote d’Ivoire & Tanzania: Peaceful elections a welcome sign Peaceful elections held earlier this month in Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania were welcome signs of improving institutions in both countries. While final results haven’t been announced yet, the fact that... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound devalued, likely to fall further The Egyptian pound was devalued, albeit modestly, over the past few weeks and, while the central bank has brought this process to a halt, we think a further fall in the currency is likely over the... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More support for EM equities on the way Attractive valuations, loose global monetary conditions and a recovery in China should support further gains in emerging market equities. Indeed, we continue to expect the MSCI Emerging Markets Index... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Services strength underpinning rebalancing For all the (justified) doubts over the accuracy of the headline growth rates, the third quarter GDP data provide evidence of encouraging shifts in the economy. According to the official data... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets in Russia & Turkey recover some lost ground Currencies, equities and bonds in the region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have posted gains over the past month as oil prices have stabilised and expectations for US rate hikes have... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Brighter times may lie ahead for emerging market assets We think the future for most emerging markets is brighter than generally believed. Their poor performance has been a function of close ties with troubled China, heavy reliance on exports of... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg is here to stay Saudi Arabia’s peg to the US dollar is coming under increasing scrutiny but we think fears that the authorities will devalue the riyal are overdone. The Kingdom’s substantial foreign exchange reserves... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth subdued but stable There has been very little in the latest data to justify fears of a widespread collapse in emerging markets. While economic growth remains subdued, conditions appear to have stabilised in recent... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf, FX reserves and budget spending: a primer Several Gulf countries have turned to their foreign exchange reserves in an effort to finance budget and current account deficits caused by last year’s slump in oil prices, but there seems to be... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities regain their poise After struggling for most of this year, Indian equities have rallied so far in October. Looking ahead, with valuations not looking particularly stretched, we expect equities to post further gains over... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How is Norway coping with lower oil prices? The decline in oil prices has weighed on the Norwegian mainland economy and things could get worse before they get better. But ramped-up policy support from the Government and central bank next year... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
