Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Will the US dollar and stocks remain in lockstep? So far this year, the US dollar has moved in tandem with the relative performance of US equities. While that may continue over short time horizons, we doubt the rally in US equities we anticipate over... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Headwinds to EM FX may persist in the short term Almost all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, and we think they will remain under pressure until interest rate expectations in the US shift lower... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: fresh naira falls to curb growth Nigeria saw sluggish growth over the second half of last year, and the latest falls in the naira mean inflation is set to rise even further over the coming months, which should prompt the central bank... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Diverging inflation stories prop up dollar, for now The theme of the week has been one of diverging inflation stories which have helped boost the US dollar. These divergences came not just between economies (hot inflation data in the US and cold in the... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Another good year could be in store for India’s markets We expect India’s stocks, bonds, and currency to rally over the remainder of this year. In view of the broader interest, we are sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation... 16th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi public finances and fiscal outlook, Egypt-IMF latest Figures published this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 and we expect another deficit this year. While the government shouldn’t struggle to finance this, if oil prices... 15th February 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Weakness in the yen looks overdone to us The rise in US bond yields has put renewed pressure on the yen, but we think further downside is limited. We still expect Treasury yields to resume their downward trend and for the yen to benefit most... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to use FX interventions more sparingly Chairman Thomas Jordan’s recent comments about the franc raise questions over whether the SNB might use FX interventions to loosen monetary conditions. But we think policymakers will use the policy... 13th February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar inches higher even as US equities hit new milestone While the dollar has fallen back a touch over the past couple of days, it has held on to most of its post-payrolls gains. The DXY index is now up about 3% on the year, having regained roughly half its... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The “carry trade” in currencies may have run its course “High-carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have not been immune to broad-based dollar strength so far this year, and we think they have further to fall. 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech euro adoption, Glapinski turns hawkish The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency union would be outweighed by the... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month, easing from 33.6% y/y in December to 29.9% y/y in January. We think inflation will continue to slow this year, but a looming... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What the “dollar smile” means in the Fed’s “last mile” While not our base case, continued strength in the US economy would probably be a tailwind for the US dollar over the coming months. But even in that event, we think the dollar would eventually weaken... 7th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen... 7th February 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Chile seize the green transition opportunity? Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile... 6th February 2024 · 21 mins read
