Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Index exclusion another symbolic blow The expulsion of Nigeria from JPMorgan’s GBI-EM bond index will have little practical impact on Africa’s largest economy. But the move is an embarrassing blow to the Nigerian government’s economic... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are most vulnerable to snap sell-offs? Our Currency Vulnerability Index (Curvi) suggests that the Brazilian real, Turkish lira, South African rand and Colombian peso remain the most exposed emerging market (EM) currencies to snap sell-offs... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which G-10 commodity currencies remain vulnerable? Four of the worst-performing G-10 currencies since mid-2014 have been those of countries that export large amounts of commodities, namely the dollars of Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Greece take advantage of a devaluation? Anxiety about Grexit may have subsided but the underlying issues have not changed. Greece still needs a weaker currency. The well-worn argument that Greece would not be able to take advantage of a... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital outflows not as large as doom mongers feared Capital outflows from China have picked up since last month’s botched currency reforms but by less than many had feared. Our view, in any case, is that outflows don’t pose as big a threat to China’s... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has internal devaluation worked for Ireland? Since the financial crisis, internal devaluation appears to have provided only a modest boost to Ireland’s trade balance. More important to the economic recovery has been the pick-up in domestic... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the dollar’s rebound to continue We think the widespread fall in the dollar against other major currencies in the wake of the “devaluation” of the Chinese renminbi was primarily a response to a shift in expectations for US monetary... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Cost of Nigerian FX restrictions becoming increasingly clear On the face of it, Nigeria’s restrictions on access to foreign currency have been quite successful at stabilising the naira and the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. However, the adverse... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank still has more work to do The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will corporate debt be the source of the next EM crisis? We think emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated corporate bonds will perform poorly over the coming years, but we do not agree with suggestions that they will be the source of an imminent EM crisis... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets bear brunt of China-led sell-off Asian financial markets have been at the centre of the recent financial market turmoil that was triggered by fears about the health of the Chinese economy. The sell-off has raised concerns that a... 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy missteps cause market waves China’s policymakers have had a dreadful month with a series of market interventions that were both badly conceived and poorly communicated. 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch What does the market turmoil mean for monetary policy? The gyrations in equity and commodity markets have raised expectations that global monetary policy will remain looser for longer than previously expected, but we think that the fallout will actually... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Industrial commodities set for strong recovery into year-end The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) Q2’s GDP release revealed that Switzerland has so far avoided a recession despite the strength of the franc. But it seems very unlikely that positive contributions from nettrade can be sustained and... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Equity sell-off to reverse soon The recent equity market sell-off in Japan, which originated in China, does not reflect a major deterioration in the economic outlook for Japan. In fact, there are signs that Chinese demand for... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
