Global Markets Update Staying in tune with stock market valuation With the debate about the valuation of the US stock market continuing to rage, one factor which is often overlooked is the importance of choosing the correct long-term average with which to compare... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to expect from EM markets when the Fed pushes the button We still think there is a good chance that US interest rates will be raised tomorrow. But whether “liftoff” is this week or later, emerging market assets and currencies are unlikely to go into... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fed rate hikes take a backseat to low oil prices in the Gulf The Gulf’s commitment to dollar pegs mean that rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported to the region, adding to the headwinds facing economic growth. But this is a secondary concern... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Exports also hit by commodity price falls It is widely understood that the value of China’s imports has been pulled down by falling commodity prices. Less well appreciated is that lower commodity prices also explain in large part why China’s... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Fed lift-off hit or help the euro-zone? We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to hold rates amid balancing act The decision to keep interest rates on hold today at 3.25% reflects the difficult balancing act facing the Malaysian central bank (BNM) as it continues to grapple with the problems caused by slowing... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities the biggest casualty of Fed uncertainty Equity markets in the emerging world have been the biggest casualty of the uncertainty about when the Fed will finally push the button on rate hikes. For our part, we still expect “lift-off” later... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling looks vulnerable to renewed falls Recent turmoil in financial markets has seen UK interest rate expectations go on something of a rollercoaster ride recently. It wasn’t all that long ago that a rate hike this year still looked a... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM foreign currency debt to perform badly, but crisis unlikely We do not think that the downgrade of the Brazilian government’s foreign currency debt to “junk” status marks the beginning of a systemic emerging market (EM) sovereign debt crisis. But we do expect... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Devaluation of Egyptian pound looking increasingly likely We have argued for some time that Egypt needs to devalue the pound and there are signs that policymakers are (belatedly) coming round to this view. We expect the currency to reach 8.25/US$ by the end... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downgraded, fiscal mess deepens There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are Treasuries to waning Chinese demand? We don’t see the possibility of China running down its foreign exchange reserves in attempts to support the renminbi as a significant risk to US Treasuries. The links between Chinese demand for... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will commodity exporters continue to weigh on global growth? Fears about the health of the world economy have centred on China, but the bulk of the slowdown over the past year has actually been due to weaker growth in commodity exporters. The outlook varies by... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
