Global Markets Update Are bond investors wrong about the prospects for Fed policy? We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Emerging Asia set for recovery The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the New Zealand dollar still overvalued? The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is likely to update its estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) next month. We suspect that these will show that the New... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah rebound unlikely to prompt immediate rate cuts The rebound in the Indonesian rupiah over the past week is unlikely to be enough to persuade Bank Indonesia to cut interest rates at its meeting on Thursday. But provided the recent rally does not go... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Reassessing currency misalignment The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is likely to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) next month. We suspect that these will... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets too dovish in expecting no rate hike until 2017 Markets expectations for the timing of the first hike in UK interest rates have moved significantly over the past month or so. While global market uncertainty in August had meant that markets were... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) Today’s data on China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that capital outflows eased last month, allowing the People’s Bank to reduce its currency intervention. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar price rally likely to falter soon The US dollar price of sugar has recently surged as a result of a hike in fuel prices in Brazil. But with the price of sugar already much higher in terms of Brazilian real, and the possibility of... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Is the Fed playing “catch-up” with the bond market? The federal funds rate is now expected to rise to less than 3% in a decade’s time, judging by the risk-neutral US Treasury yield curve. This rate remains well below the average projection of FOMC... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy back in recession Japan’s economy probably shrank for a second straight quarter in Q3. With the economic recovery grinding to a halt, the chances of hitting the Bank’s 2%inflation by next summer are dwindling rapidly... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What do the new COFER data tell us about China’s reserves? China appears to hold a larger than average share of its fx reserves in US dollars, UK pounds and Australian dollars at the expense of euros and the Japanese yen. This is the conclusion we have... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Time to worry about FX debt in Russia? The fall in the ruble has led to a sharp increase in the foreign currency debt burden for Russian companies. The risks are mitigated to some extent by the fact that the debt is concentrated among... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Panic subsides, but pessimism lingers Although the China-led panic that swept through Asian markets in August has subsided over the past month, most of the region’s currencies and equity markets still recorded losses. Investor sentiment... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equity markets find their footing, but rebound unlikely After a tumultuous few months, Chinese stock markets stabilised ahead of a week-long recess for the Golden Week holidays. Meanwhile, market interest rates remain near record lows and the PBOC appears... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil reinstates FX swap programme as real fall spooks policymakers 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s crisis deepens Brazil has slipped deeper into crisis over the past month. The slump in the real economy has gathered pace, with our GDP Tracker now suggesting the output could have contracted by up to 4% y/y in Q3... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
