India Economics Update Policymakers unfazed by rupee slide The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar so far in 2016 to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum". But unlike three years ago, there is little reason for policymakers to panic. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook MPC unlikely to wait as long as markets think We think that recent fears about a global slowdown, and hence the reaction in financial markets, have been overdone. In fact, we expect global growth to accelerate this year and the prices of most... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from a weaker ruble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past year or so has eased some of the pressure on Russia’s government finances but we suspect that structural problems will prevent the wider economy from fully... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weaker dollar supports commodity prices It has been a quiet few weeks for news from China, as disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday has made it difficult to determine exactly how the economy has fared so far this year... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Risks of major renminbi devaluation are exaggerated The lack of clarity in China’s data and clumsy communication of policy changes have allowed many scare stories to proliferate. Nonetheless, there is little justification for fears that the renminbi is... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will a stronger yen derail the BoJ’s efforts to hit 2% inflation? The recent appreciation of the yen, even if sustained for longer, should not have a major impact on external demand nor consumer prices. However, it will lower corporate profits and could reduce firms... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where next for Argentine bonds? The medium-term outlook for Argentina’s economy has undoubtedly improved since the election of President Macri, but we see little room for the rally in the bond market to continue. Indeed, with a lot... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What chance of a new Plaza (or Shanghai) Accord? Recent financial market turmoil has prompted speculation that G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will discuss the merits of closer exchange rate coordination at their gathering in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What can Japan do about a stronger yen? The surge in the yen against the US dollar has understandably raised expectations of further action to weaken the Japanese currency. We think the Bank of Japan is unlikely to intervene directly in the... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen strengthens despite shift to negative rates The Bank of Japan’s decision to cut the interest rate on some excess reserves below zero initially delivered a slide in the exchange rate and a rise in equities. But these shifts soon reversed and the... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in our Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients on 27th January), but in this note we... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging markets show (some) resilience Notwithstanding some renewed pressure in recent days, financial markets in the emerging world have held up fairly well in the past month. Indeed, while bonds, equities and currencies have all fallen... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Shift in rate expectations not justified by economic data Over the past few weeks, markets appear to have pushed back their expectation for the timing of the first hike in UK interest rates all the way to Q3 2019, and there has been some speculation of a... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Revising, but not renouncing, our view of US Treasuries We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield. Nonetheless, our new forecasts still imply that the yield will climb significantly from its current level of 1.8%, as the Fed... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can EMs exploit weaker currencies? EMs are much better placed now than in the past to weather potential problems caused by sharp drops in their currencies. But by the same token, those EMs that have seen the largest falls in their... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices rally on dollar weakness A visitor from Mars might have been confused by the responses of commodity markets to US economic data in the past few days. Prices jumped in dollar terms after the publication on Wednesday of a weak... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
