DM Valuations Monitor Is the US dollar now overvalued? According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the US dollar now looks “fundamentally” overvalued. However, valuations can stretch a long way before they snap, and other... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee to continue drifting lower The Indian rupee has weakened against the US dollar over the past month and, looking ahead, the currency could drift a little lower as the US Fed begins to tighten policy. But given the big... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the worst now over for the major commodity currencies? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have come under fire again, as the prices of the commodities that they export have dropped back. We think these prices are likely to recover a little... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar puts pressure on commodities Commodity prices have suffered since the middle of October, with the Bloomberg Commodities Index underperforming equities by a sizeable margin. The strong appreciation of the US dollar weighed heavily... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mounting signs that Egypt’s exchange rate policy will shift There is growing talk that Egypt is in the midst of a currency crisis and, while we think some of this may be a bit overdone, developments over the past month or so suggest that a shift towards a more... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook MPC unlikely to wait as long as markets think Financial markets still do not expect interest rates to rise until the end of 2016. While we agree that interest rates will rise very slowly, we expect the first rise to come sooner, probably in the... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More positives than negatives in October data The latest round of Chinese data was met with plenty of gloomy headlines. We think these were overdone. The cloud over China’s economy may not have lifted but there were more positives than negatives... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SDR inclusion unlikely to boost renminbi demand The IMF’s decision to include the renminbi in the SDR basket will not directly increase demand for renminbi assets. The implicit endorsement of the renminbi as a reserve asset is unlikely to sway the... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Shifts in global savings and their implications for US Treasuries The unusual stability of long-term US Treasury yields during the last Fed tightening cycle between 2004 and 2006 has been attributed to a glut of global savings. We are not convinced by this... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets take blockbuster payrolls in their stride EM financial markets took the blockbuster October US employment report in their stride, and we continue to expect them to perform well even as the Fed starts to raise interest rates. 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s trade data provide some grounds for optimism While the headlines have focused on the falls in export and import values, China’s trade data actually show commodity import volumes holding up well. What’s more, the record trade surplus will support... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fading outflows ease pressure on renminbi Capital outflows from China appear to have eased while the trade surplus is at an all-time high. As a result, downward pressure on the renminbi has dissipated. We suspect, contrary to the analyst... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is the renewed interest in bitcoin a serious threat to gold? The recent weakness in the price of gold has coincided with a surge in the price of bitcoin, prompting a few to suggest that the electronic currency is again challenging the precious metal as a... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Global central banks continue to add gold to their reserves Global central banks increased their gold reserves in September, with China and Russia once again particularly active. We expect further official purchases to continue to be one of several factors... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the inclusion of the RMB in the SDR be a game-changer? Although the addition of China’s currency to the SDR basket may provide a short-term boost for the renminbi, its appeal as a reserve asset will be constrained by lack of convertibility and liquidity... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies and the impact on inflation The sharp falls in currencies across Latin America over the past year have pushed up inflation in most countries. But the extent of the pass-through has varied significantly. The effect has been... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
