Emerging Markets Economics Focus

FX scarcity: will the pain point ease?

The authorities in several major emerging markets, including Egypt, Argentina and Nigeria, have taken important policy steps recently that may allow them to ease restrictions on access to foreign...

13th June 2024 · 20 mins read

FX Markets Focus

The euro could stay lower for longer

Although the EUR/USD exchange rate is not far above multi-decade lows, we think structural factors mean that the euro is close to “fair value” relative to the US dollar and most other major currencies...

12th June 2024 · 14 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Property values on course to fall by more than 25%

The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this summer could be the bottom for transactions, but we still see valuations needing to fall by another 12% from...

11th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Capital Daily

Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets

French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right...

10th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Why are US import prices from Japan rising?

Rising car prices explain why US import prices from Japan haven’t fallen despite the sharp weakening of the yen. While growth in car prices has slowed as supply shortages have unwound, this hasn’t...

10th June 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

USD bounces back (to unchanged) after payrolls surprise

The strong nonfarm payrolls report released earlier today broke the recent streak of downward data surprises out of the US and has renewed strength in the dollar. Even so, the greenback looks set to...

7th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

Parsing the market’s verdict on recent EM elections

Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in their financial markets over the past week or so, highlighting the potential for electoral surprises to generate short...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB

While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10...

6th June 2024 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Update

Zloty’s appreciation may come to a halt

Having lagged behind other emerging market (EM) currencies for most of the post-pandemic period, the Polish zloty has lead the pack over the past six months. While we think that most of this rally has...

3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar again on the backfoot as US inflation eases a touch

The US dollar has eased back a bit further against other G10 currencies this week as another round of slightly softer US inflation data dampened the recent rebound in US interest rate expectations. By...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Chart Pack

FX Markets Chart Pack (May. 2024)

The US dollar has fallen back across the board in May as expected interest rate differentials have shifted against the US vis-à-vis many other economies, and risk sentiment has recovered. Overall, the...

31st May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB to cut rates; SNB to sell FX assets?

The key event next week will be Thursday’s ECB meeting when we think the Bank will cut the deposit rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. But strong services inflation in May and strong wage growth in Q1 may...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

Capital Daily

South African election adds uncertainty in markets

The early results from South Africa’s general election suggest that the African National Congress (ANC) will fall short of securing a majority, and may be forced into forming a coalition with the...

30th May 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Markets Chart Pack

UK Markets Chart Pack (May 2024)

The stickiness of inflation in April has led us to shift back our forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut from 5.25% from June to August. Even so, our view that CPI inflation will fall...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024)

Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus...

28th May 2024 · 0 mins read