Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt getting to grips with its foreign currency problems Egypt’s fragile external position has come under the spotlight once again, but the latest signs are that policymakers are trying to ease foreign currency restrictions. The upshot is that a devaluation... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling to keep playing piggy in the middle While monetary policy looks set to start moving in opposite directions in the US and euro-zone very soon, no change looks likely in the UK in the near future. Sterling is therefore likely to be caught... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Dollar-denominated bonds primed for “lift-off” Fed tightening may dampen demand for emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government bonds in the next couple of years, but with spreads over US Treasuries already high we do not expect a major... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi joining SDR basket won't increase demand The IMF has just confirmed that the renminbi will be added to its SDR basket. Thismay be of symbolic significance to some but we think it will make hardly anydifference to currency demand. In other... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No sense of panic as Fed hike approaches Asian financial markets have held up well over the past month despite a renewed slump in China’s equity market at the end of last week and growing expectations of a December Fed rate hike. 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian markets continue to recover Brazil’s financial markets have come under pressure in recent days following the escalation of corruption allegations at state-owned oil company Petrobras, but the bigger picture is that they have... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities drop, yields rise as external concerns resurface Renewed concerns over Egypt’s external position, coupled with fresh security fears in light of the Russian plane crash in the Sinai, have caused the country’s equity market to slump and dollar bond... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to limit but not prevent franc appreciation The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pace of dollar appreciation expected to wane next year At first glance, there would appear to be an inconsistency between our forecast that the trade-weighted dollar will increase by a modest 2% next year, while at the same time we also expect short-term... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Dollar strength unlikely to alter outlooks for monetary policy Being long of the dollar is reportedly one of the most crowded trades in the market. However, we stillthink that the US currency has further to climb against other majors. Indeed, we now expect the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Historic policy split to push euro below parity The prospect of a historically large divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy looks set to push the euro below parity versus the US dollar for the first time since late 2002. 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Much more to EM currencies than interest rate differentials Unlike in developed markets, interest rate differentials are not a particularly good guide to currency movements in emerging markets (EMs). Accordingly, while there will be bumps in the road, we do... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Devaluation fears rise in Egypt and Saudi Arabia The past month has bought mounting speculation about currency devaluation in the region’s two largest economies, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In the case of Saudi Arabia, we think this is extremely... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation likely to be a last resort Speculation over a devaluation of the Saudi riyal has mounted in the past few days but we think such a move is likely to be used as a last resort. Instead, we think cuts to capital spending are likely... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crisis or recovery? Concerns about the outlook for emerging markets look increasingly overdone. Pockets of vulnerability exist, but in our view EM growth is more likely to recover over the next 3-6 months than it is to... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
