Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Revival won't last long The recent resurgence in activity in both Australia and New Zealand is not the start of a sustained period of strong GDP growth. While the near-term outlook has improved, GDP growth in both economies... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone nose-dive? There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Not all doom & gloom for commodities Although the S&P GSCI Commodity Index has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis over the past month, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for commodity prices. Indeed, despite the slide... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies shrug off looming Fed hike Currencies in Latin America appear to have shrugged off the prospect of a looming US interest rate hike, with most exchange rates broadly unchanged against the dollar month-to-date. The currencies of... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is a major devaluation of the renminbi the next global shock? Late on Friday the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) appeared to signal its intention to shift towards managing the renminbi against a currency basket rather than the US dollar. This has added to... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies stable as Fed lift-off approaches Relative calm in most EM currencies over the past month (the Colombian peso and Russian ruble being the obvious exceptions) supports our view that emerging markets are generally well placed to... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish, Danish & Norwegian Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s consumer prices data showed a continued divergence between the subdued rates of inflation in Sweden and Denmark and stronger price pressures in Norway, reflecting the recent depreciation of... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Finance minister’s sacking will spook investors The surprise removal of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene is a very worrying development. Mr. Nene was a rare advocate of fiscal discipline, and his sacking adds to a string of increasingly autocratic... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Respite for the SNB, but fight against franc is not over With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack 2015 another year to forget, but outlook brighter Most emerging market (EM) asset classes have underperformed their peers in developed markets so far this year. Plenty of downside risks remain going into 2016, but we continue to think that EM markets... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK stuck between transatlantic policy divergence It now looks odds on that the US Federal Reserve presses ahead and raises interest rates next week, while on the other side of the English Channel, the ECB has already loosened policy further. The UK... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack How exposed are US Treasuries to tighter Fed policy? The broad-based strength of the last two US employment reports has seen investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy. Investors now expect the federal funds rate to rise at a faster pace than... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Nov.) Today’s data suggest that capital outflows picked up sharply last month, leading the People’s Bank to resume selling FX in order to prop up the value of the renminbi. 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries remain exposed to tighter Fed policy Today’s US Employment Report bolsters our view that the future stance of Fed policy will put upward pressure on Treasury yields over the next couple of years. 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt getting to grips with its foreign currency problems Egypt’s fragile external position has come under the spotlight once again, but the latest signs are that policymakers are trying to ease foreign currency restrictions. The upshot is that a devaluation... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
