Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Turkey regained competitiveness? There is some evidence that the fall in the lira in the past few years has led to import substitution in parts of Turkey’s manufacturing sector, suggesting that the economy’s competitiveness has... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election signals continuation of market-friendly policies The early results of Peru’s presidential election suggest that the race will go to a run-off on 5th June. But given that both leading candidates are likely to continue with the current government’s... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egyptian inflation edged down to 9.0% y/y in March, but we think the inflation figures are yet to fully capture the impact of the devaluation of the pound in the same month. Indeed, we expect... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A simple economist’s view of the euro and the yen The recent weakness of the US dollar against the euro and especially the yen has already led many to tear up their currency forecasts for the year. However, expectations for US monetary policy still... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen-strength raises chances of more monetary easing The government has tried to talk down the yen down over last week as the currency has climbed to fresh highs against the dollar. While we still consider intervention in the currency markets unlikely... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar crucial when domestic demand is slowing The Reserve Bank of Australia should be applauded for resuming its attempts to talk down the dollar as the evolution of the currency will have a crucial influence on the outlook for both economic... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Mar.) Receding fears over a sharp renminbi devaluation, along with favourable exchange rate movements, has helped end the recent string of declines in the value of China’s FX reserves. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renminbi still likely to weaken further against the US dollar The appreciation of China’s currency against the US dollar this year, while small, has confounded market fears of a substantial devaluation . Nonetheless, even if the PBOC continues to target broad... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth still weak, but not slowing sharply Business surveys edged up in March but still point to global economic growth of only around 2%. In the US, jobs growth remained strong and, with core inflation pressures building, we think the Fed... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the improvement in Brazil’s trade balance? The rapid improvement in Brazil’s trade balance is due mainly to a collapse in imports caused by the extreme weakness of domestic demand. But there are also signs that a weaker real is starting to... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Tigers in trouble, but better prospects elsewhere The region’s original tiger economies, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea, are likely to struggle over the next couple of years against a backdrop of cooling credit growth, bursting property... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much longer will yen strength weigh on the Nikkei? April may prove to be a crunch month for our view that renewed currency weakness will allow Japanese equities to outperform again. If the yen fails to drop back in response to further monetary easing... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Actions rather than words may be needed to weaken the Australian dollar We were right to suggest that, while leaving interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, the Reserve Bank of Australia would use the policy statement to try to talk the dollar down. Whether or not this will... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Bank seizes fleeting opportunity for rate cut The Bank of Uganda is unlikely to follow today’s surprise rate cut with much more monetary easing this year. A variety of factors will force the Bank to keep policy tight. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Our key calls for this year Despite the recent resurgence in economic growth, we still expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again, albeit not until much later this year. While widening interest rate differentials... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB can’t afford to ignore the euro Recent weak activity and inflation data in the euro-zone have underlined the fact that the ECB cannot afford to simply sit back and allow the euro exchange rate to strengthen further. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
