China Economics Update When might things improve? This week’s declines in China’s stock markets and currency raise a challenge to our relatively upbeat view of near-term prospects. But we continue to believe that growth is more likely to pick up than... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of renewed intervention in China Renewed intervention by the authorities in China may not be enough to prevent further falls in local equity markets, but even in the event of a sell-off the macroeconomic consequences should be small... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Devaluation inevitable, delays only lengthen the pain Nigeria’s cumbersome FX restrictions are strangling economic growth in the country, and are unsustainable given growing pressure on the naira. We expect that the authorities will be forced to devalue... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations set stage for outperformance of EM equities Emerging market (EM) equities fared poorly in 2015, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling by 8% in local currency terms and lagging behind the MSCI World Index of developed market equities for... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Basket shift adds to depreciation pressure Strong hints from the People’s Bank that it is shifting the focus of its exchange rate management to a trade-weighted currency basket have intensified expectations of further renminbi declines. But... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A quiet end to the year Asian financial markets have taken the start of Fed tightening in their stride. Currencies, equities and government bond yields have all been fairly stable over the past month. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack ASEAN Economic Community is no game changer The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) formally takes effect on 31st December and aims to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base, which its supporters hope will one day enable it to... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Precious metals supply to tighten as currency boost fades Falls in currencies of major producers have played a key role in cushioning mining companies’ margins in recent years. However, with the prices of most precious metals trading below production costs... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt edging closer to pound devaluation The Egyptian central bank has found itself in the spotlight this month, as attention has (re-)focussed on the country’s fragile external position. The appointment of Tarek Amer as governor had already... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak producer currencies to keep prices under pressure Currency fluctuations have been a key factor dragging agricultural prices lower in US dollar terms this year. Dollar strength and weakness in key producer currencies are likely to remain headwinds in... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japanese equities to outperform again as yen falls further A combination of fading fears over China and additional yen weakness, as the Bank of Japan steps up the pace of its asset purchases, should allow Japanese equities to outperform their US peers in 2016... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Asia in 2016 A slump in exports, slowing growth and falling currencies made for a grim 2015. But will next year be any better? In this final Weekly of the year, we outline our key calls for 2016. 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons for 2016 from 2015 Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Equities well placed to cope with further Fed tightening The US stock market has reacted positively to the first rate hike by the Fed, and we don’t expect it to be derailed by the onset of further tightening. Admittedly, at around 4%, the cyclically... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh slump in oil prices weighs on Gulf equity markets Equity markets in the Gulf have fallen further over the past month, dragged down by the renewed slump in oil prices. Elsewhere, Egypt’s central bank has maintained a tight grip on the pound but... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets take Fed tightening in their stride Financial markets in India have taken yesterday's decision by the US Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade in their stride. A bigger test might come if the Fed now tightens... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
