Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally isn’t a major threat to GDP growth Canada’s economy certainly has its growth challenges ahead, but the recent rally in the Canadian dollar isn’t a major threat to the economic growth outlook, partly because it has been accompanied by a... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the stronger yen actually a boon for Japan? The recent strengthening of the yen will lower prices of imported goods and provide some support to flagging private consumption. However, lower import prices provide a further headwind to the Bank of... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil prices supports Gulf financial markets Financial markets across the Gulf have performed well over the past month, supported by the continued recovery in oil prices. Meanwhile, Egyptian markets have been buoyed by last month’s decision by... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden Sweden’s Riksbank expanded its QE programme and kept its options open for easing later in the year. While the economy is growing strongly and inflation has picked up recently, a rising currency and... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the dollar’s boost to US equities last? The recent weakness of the dollar has provided a boost to the US stock market which we do not expect to last. Admittedly, we do not anticipate another big increase in the US currency’s trade-weighted... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: CBE’s deficit financing adds to pressures on the pound The Egyptian government seems to be increasingly reliant on the central bank to finance the budget deficit. If this persists, inflation is likely to remain elevated and downward pressure on the pound... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Basically stable” renminbi in quiet retreat The renminbi’s continued trade-weighted decline is probably best seen as an opportunistic response by Chinese policymakers to a period of broad dollar weakness rather than reflecting a policy to... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting used to lower growth Global growth was sluggish in the first quarter, but it is likely to pick up a bit during the rest of the year. A policy-induced rebound in China and recovery in the prices of key commodities should... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Maturing FX swaps unlikely to rattle markets Recent concerns over a potential market sell-off when the Reserve Bank‘s FX swap facilities, unveiled during the 2013 “taper tantrum”, mature have been overstated. For a start, the RBI has already... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s stubbornness will drag on growth While we’re still hopeful that the divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy will help to bring the euro lower against the US dollar, the combination of the Fed’s recent dovishnessand hints... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets benefit from resurgent commodity prices The further recovery in commodity prices over the past month has given financial markets in the emerging world another leg up. We doubt that commodity prices will rise much further, but with clearer... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack What’s behind the dollar’s slide? The US dollar has slid against other major currencies since its peak on 20th January. This has been due to higher commodity prices, greater appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of expectations... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this a temporary setback for the dollar? Three key developments explain the US dollar’s slide against other major currencies since its peak on 20 th January – higher commodity prices, increased appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The sharp acceleration of Nigerian inflation is yet another sign that the country’s controversial currency and price control policies have failed. We expect that inflation will continue rising... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
