Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation and tourism troubles spell slowdown in 2016 The latest Egyptian economic data, on the face of it, show that the economy held up well in 2015, but the underlying picture is actually pretty weak. With the tourism sector in the midst of a fresh... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African currencies: Key calls for 2016 In this Watch we outline our key views on African currencies in 2016. First, we expect that both the Angolan kwanza and Nigerian naira will be devalued. Second, we expect that the rand will weaken... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s populist shift bodes poorly for zloty & MT growth The lurch to a more populist policymaking agenda in Poland hasn’t made much difference to the near-term economic outlook, but it will harm medium-term growth prospects and, more immediately, depress... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is sterling’s shaky start to the year a sign of things to come? A shift in market interest rate expectations, a spate of weak economic data and the looming “Brexit” vote are probably all partly to blame for sterling’s recent weakness. Although the currency looks... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sterling likely to fall further against the dollar, but not the euro After peaking in mid-November, sterling has fallen nearly 5% on a trade-weighted basis, making it the worst performing major currency bar the Canadian dollar over this period. The weakness will be... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is driving capital out of China? The recent flood of capital leaving China has been driven primarily by increased scepticism that the People’s Bank will hold to its pledge to keep the renminbi stable. The fact that the PBOC has ended... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Final CPI (Dec.) The fall in Russian inflation in December to 12.9% y/y provided the first clear sign that the impact of the 2014 ruble crisis has started to unwind. And we think that inflation is likely to decline... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the rally in the yen run out of steam? The yen has been the strongest of the major currencies since the end of November. Not only has Japan’s currency benefited from the recent turmoil in global financial markets, but it has also been... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy slow but still stable despite market meltdown China’s equity markets continue to tumble, its currency is under unprecedented pressure and Chinese policymakers’ reputation for competence is looking ever more tarnished. Contrary to many of the... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking four myths about EMs Not so long ago we were among the most bearish commentators on emerging markets. But even we find some of the more recent gloomy headlines difficult to square with the evidence on the ground. In this... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How worried should we be about the renminbi? In our view, China is likely to keep its currency broadly stable in trade-weighted terms in the coming months. However, if there were a large, across-the-board devaluation of the renminbi the fallout... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long can the PBOC hold on? The willingness of the People’s Bank to sell over $100bn of foreign exchange reserves last month is a measure of its belief that a stable currency is in China’s interests and that current downward... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia chooses fiscal squeeze rather than devaluation The fresh drop in oil prices has once again prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia will follow other major oil producers and devalue its currency. But we think this will only be used as a last resort... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) The modest rebound in export volumes in November wasn’t enough to offset the much larger decline in the previous month, suggesting that exports contracted over the fourth quarter as a whole. As things... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
