Latin America Economics Update Peru holds rates but hikes still on the horizon The Central Reserve Bank of Peru kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% for a third consecutive month, but we suspect that further rate hikes are still on the way in the second half of the year. Indeed... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Brexit fears still weighing on sterling despite rally Having fallen since mid-November, trade-weighted sterling has recovered a little over the past month. But with the pound still far below its previous peak, and demand for protection against further... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: FX comments, fuel price hikes offer hints of reform The vice president’s comments regarding a possible change to Nigeria’s currency regime suggest that policy elites may not be as opposed to a devaluation as many believe. Claims that Nigeria’s fuel... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength The rise in Swedish inflation will prove short-lived if inflation expectations stay below 2%. In order to boost such expectations, the Riksbank must ensure that the krona does not appreciate strongly. 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Has the rally in “junk” bonds gone too far? The strong performance of non-investment grade (or “junk”) dollar-denominated government bonds in recent weeks has driven the yield premium over investment grade bonds down to 360bp, a level rarely... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pressures on pound build, further devaluation on the cards Since March’s devaluation, Egypt’s central bank has been hesitant to let the pound fall further, but pressures are building and we think a further devaluation is on the cards. We expect the pound to... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack It’s all about the dollar Commodity prices rose again in April on a combination of persistent weakness in the US dollar and investor optimism about a recovery in Chinese demand. While our long-held view has been that... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5% Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.75% will help solve the economy’s twin problems of too slow growth and too low underlying inflation. It also... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Corporate bond spreads widen Worries about a rise in defaults pushed corporate bond spreads up sharply in April. Meanwhile, the rally in China’s equity markets came to a halt. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies gain, but Mozambique struggles The performance of African markets was mixed this month. Currencies in most major economies strengthened, but Mozambique’s ongoing debt scandal has caused US dollar debt yields there to jump. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian ringgit rebound continues Most currencies and equity markets are up so far this month. The Malaysian ringgit has continued to rebound strongly, but political uncertainty ahead of presidential elections in the Philippines is... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is sterling’s recent rally here to stay? Sterling’s recent rally as expectations of a Brexit have fallen suggests that the pound will rise further if the UK votes to remain in the EU. But there are reasons why the rally is unlikely to last. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Dollars go from helping to hindering The recent strength of both the Australian and New Zealand dollars means that interest rates will have to fall further than widely expected to solve the twin problems of too slow economic growth and... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Drought hits agricultural output in Thailand and Vietnam Vietnam and Thailand are facing their worst drought in decades, with water levels in the Mekong River at their lowest since 1926. The drought is already having an impact on growth. A decline in... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s bond sale lifts local markets The Argentine government’s return to global capital markets after a 15-year hiatus was met with a surge of investor optimism and coincided with a rally in its financial markets. Meanwhile, the... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
