Global Markets Update What next for the dollar? We have reduced the amount by which we forecast the dollar to strengthen against the euro and the yen this year, but increased the amount by which we project that it will appreciate against sterling... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Would the Gulf benefit from currency devaluation? The latest drop in oil prices has intensified speculation that the Gulf economies might abandon their dollar pegs but there remain good reasons to think that this would achieve little in terms of... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bad start to 2016 India has not been spared the sell-off in EM financial markets since the start of the year. The rupee is now at its weakest rate against the US dollar since the currency crisis of September 2013... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in the ruble mean for Russia? The latest drop in the ruble to below 80/$ creates several headaches for policymakers and means that the chances of a cut in interest rates over the next month or so, which were already slim, have now... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of an EM currency war looks overdone A retreat to widespread competitive currency devaluations in emerging markets would certainly be a cause for concern but, despite recent claims to the contrary, there is so far little evidence to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong’s peg survive a speculative attack? A shift in market expectations about China’s exchange rate has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. But despite the surge in speculation, we think the peg will stay for years to... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be worried about Sovereign Wealth Funds? The collapse in oil prices has prompted concerns that many sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) will be forced to liquidate their vast holdings of financial assets, thereby putting further pressure on market... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar likely to rebound before year end The plunge in the Canadian dollar to a thirteen-year low of US$0.69 has forecasters jumping on the bearish bandwagon with increasingly pessimistic forecasts for the year ahead, mainly over fears that... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should Asia fear a collapse in the renminbi? Fears of a sudden devaluation of the Chinese renminbi have cast a shadow over Emerging Asia’s economic prospects since the start of the year. But while Asian exporters would hardly welcome a slump in... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in November, suggesting that exports might have added to GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little contribution to growth this... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec. 15) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
