Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira ‘reforms’ take centre stage Hints of a devaluation have led to confusion over the direction of Nigerian FX policy. Political uncertainty and fears of a ratings downgrade left South African rand as the worst performing EM... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equity markets stumble, despite oil rally Equity markets across the Gulf have struggled over the past month, in spite of a further recovery in oil prices. At the same time, speculation has increased that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal... 30th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation a last resort In spite of the backdrop of the recent recovery in oil prices, which broke through US$50pb today for the first time this year, speculation has mounted that Saudi Arabia will devalue its currency. We... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am currencies rattled more than most Currencies across Latin America have been caught up in the EM-wide sell-off in recent weeks, triggered by the US Fed signalling that a June interest rate hike is still on the table. But a combination... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well-placed to cope with the Fed’s next rate hikes The US Fed looks set to increase interest rates soon, possibly as early as its June meeting, and we think it will end up hiking more than is generally expected over the next couple of years. However... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renminbi weakness needs to be seen in perspective The renewed slide in the renminbi against the US dollar may revive concerns about a broad-based devaluation of the Chinese currency. However, as we have argued before, context is everything, and here... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is going on with the renminbi? In trade-weighted terms, the renminbi has regained some lost ground recently. But all the headlinesare about it falling to multi-year lows against the dollar. This underlines the difficult position... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM currencies underperform as the Fed hikes? Emerging market (EM) currencies have not always underperformed during Fed tightening cycles and we do not expect them to do so this time, even as US rates rise further than is generally anticipated 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Claims that the launch of negative interest rates has caused a flight to cash are exaggerated. However, there are clear signs that negative rates have lowered borrowing costs for Japan’s private... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack PM Modi's first two years end on a high note Two years on from his inauguration, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arguably just enjoyed his most successful month in office. For a start, PM Modi's BJP secured two important legislative victories... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations could protect EM equities from the Fed While investors are still probably underestimating the future pace of monetary tightening in the US, we suspect that relatively low valuations will help to ensure that emerging market (EM) equities... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN finally admits need for flexibility The Central Bank of Nigeria finally admitted at its MPC meeting today that its inflexible “strong naira” policy has failed. The move towards a more flexible exchange rate system is a positive step. We... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength The rise in Swedish inflation will prove short-lived if inflation expectations stay below 2%. In order to boost such expectations, the Riksbank must ensure that the krona does not appreciate strongly. 21st May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Any post-referendum sterling rally to be short-lived Brexit worries have been driving sterling lower so far this year. Accordingly, a vote to “remain” in June’s EU referendum should see the pound rebound. But we think any strength is unlikely to be... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will rising Treasury yields rattle EMs next year? We now think that the 10-year US Treasury yield will rise by about 100bp in 2017. Nonetheless, unlike previous occassions when it has risen sharply, we doubt that it will lead to a crisis in emerging... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s going on with EM currencies? After staging a decent recovery this year, almost all EM currencies have weakened against the US dollar so far this month. Some may weaken a little further, but we think a large sell-off is unlikely. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
