Japan Economics Update Will a stronger yen derail the BoJ’s efforts to hit 2% inflation? The recent appreciation of the yen, even if sustained for longer, should not have a major impact on external demand nor consumer prices. However, it will lower corporate profits and could reduce firms... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where next for Argentine bonds? The medium-term outlook for Argentina’s economy has undoubtedly improved since the election of President Macri, but we see little room for the rally in the bond market to continue. Indeed, with a lot... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What chance of a new Plaza (or Shanghai) Accord? Recent financial market turmoil has prompted speculation that G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will discuss the merits of closer exchange rate coordination at their gathering in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What can Japan do about a stronger yen? The surge in the yen against the US dollar has understandably raised expectations of further action to weaken the Japanese currency. We think the Bank of Japan is unlikely to intervene directly in the... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen strengthens despite shift to negative rates The Bank of Japan’s decision to cut the interest rate on some excess reserves below zero initially delivered a slide in the exchange rate and a rise in equities. But these shifts soon reversed and the... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in our Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients on 27th January), but in this note we... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging markets show (some) resilience Notwithstanding some renewed pressure in recent days, financial markets in the emerging world have held up fairly well in the past month. Indeed, while bonds, equities and currencies have all fallen... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Shift in rate expectations not justified by economic data Over the past few weeks, markets appear to have pushed back their expectation for the timing of the first hike in UK interest rates all the way to Q3 2019, and there has been some speculation of a... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Revising, but not renouncing, our view of US Treasuries We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield. Nonetheless, our new forecasts still imply that the yield will climb significantly from its current level of 1.8%, as the Fed... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can EMs exploit weaker currencies? EMs are much better placed now than in the past to weather potential problems caused by sharp drops in their currencies. But by the same token, those EMs that have seen the largest falls in their... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices rally on dollar weakness A visitor from Mars might have been confused by the responses of commodity markets to US economic data in the past few days. Prices jumped in dollar terms after the publication on Wednesday of a weak... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Be wary of currency-driven swings in commodity prices The dollar prices of many commodities have been boosted this week by declines in the value of the US currency. Any recovery may be good news for producers regardless of the underlying cause... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is losing the global currency race Having succeeded in bringing the euro down sharply last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently fallen behind in the race amongst global policymakers to weaken their currencies in order to... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where in the Gulf is the threat of devaluation greatest? We have argued for some time that the Gulf economies are in a strong position to weather a period of low oil prices and, despite speculation in markets, that dollar pegs won’t be abandoned. Bahrain... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Has the sell-off in equities gone too far? There are signs that the collapse in emerging market (EM) equity prices, spurred by concerns that China’s economy is heading for a hard landing, has gone too far. We believe that China’s economy will... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We think sub-zero long-term JGB yields lie ahead We expect the Bank of Japan to reduce its deposit rate much further into negative territory over the course of the next year. (See our Japan Economics service for details.) This reinforces our view... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
