Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2018 Looser fiscal policy is likely to support an acceleration in economic growth next year but it will fizzle out again in 2018 leaving ample amounts of spare capacity and little in the way of... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter While we doubt that the loss of Australia’s AAA credit rating would be followed by a rise in borrowing costs for the government, states and banks, it would nonetheless highlight that the burden to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun 2016) The modest fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in June, to 2.5% y/y from 2.6% y/y in May, hides the fact that core inflation pressures are creeping up. Coupled with continued pressure on the peso... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Jun.) The surprise increase in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month could be the result of the People’s Bank marking to market the value of some reserve assets at the end of June, in... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC weakening renminbi and its own credibility Continued declines in the renminbi against both the dollar and the official trade-weighted basket make a mockery of the PBOC’s suggestion that its policy is to keep the currency’s value stable... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Commodity currencies could make further gains The UK’s decision to leave the EU caused a momentary wobble in emerging market (EM) currencies, but many are now stronger against the US dollar than they were one month ago. Commodity currencies have... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is sterling a good indicator of global Brexit risks? The renewed slide in the value of the pound yesterday has prompted fresh jitters in global financial markets, as well as increased demand for traditional safe havens such as gold and the yen. But... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t panic about the pound While the downward pressure on the pound has increased in response to some adverse post-referendum developments, we have long argued that a substantially lower exchange rate would be an important... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Sterling’s slide boosts UK equities Perhaps surprisingly, the shares of medium- and large-sized companies fared better in the UK than in the US, the euro-zone and Japan, in the aftermath of the vote for Brexit. Much of this... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Easing cycles have further to run in several frontier markets The past month has brought aggressive monetary easing in a handful of frontier markets, and we think others will follow suit over the rest of this year. Cuts in policy interest rates this month in... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts in the wake of the “Brexit” vote Our existing market forecasts were premised on an assumption that the UK would vote to remain in the EU. After the vote to leave, we have allowed the initial dust to settle, reviewed our projections... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why have equity markets rebounded after the Brexit vote? There are several plausible reasons why the prices of equities and other riskier assets have recovered after the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Some of these may be temporary, notably short covering. More... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira float, Brexit rattle local markets The key decision affecting African markets this month was Nigeria’s long-awaited currency reforms, which sent the naira tumbling. The effect of Britain’s vote to leave the EU was relatively limited... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging European markets underperform after Brexit vote 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s markets calm after Brexit The renminbi has weakened against the US dollar following the UK’s decision last week to leave the EU. But there are no signs of renewed panic about the currency.Meanwhile, equity markets have held... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
