China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (June) Global investors pulled money out of China’s financial markets at a slightly faster pace last month, perhaps due to renewed concerns about the outlook for the renminbi. But the largest rise in foreign... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s announcement this week that it will inject more capital into local banks is a positive step, but the amount is still too limited to revive the ailing sector. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: currency reforms fall short of high hopes Nigeria’s new exchange rate policy falls far short of the authorities’ bold promises and we think the currency will have to fall further over the coming 12 months or so. 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices hitting home Oil prices have been low for some time now, but the past month has brought further evidence that this new reality is starting to hit home in energy-exporting frontier markets. Recently-released data... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Shrugging off global and domestic uncertainty The early evidence suggests that businesses and households in Australia have not been ruffled by the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Australia’s close Federal election result. Admittedly, consumer... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh devaluation of the Egyptian pound just a matter of time The Egyptian pound has been held steady since March’s devaluation, but persistent strains in the balance of payments mean that it needs to fall further. Recent shifts towards more orthodox... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Turkey’s failed coup The near-term economic impact of Friday night’s attempted coup in Turkey will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will the number of non-resident foreign buyers continue to drop? As we had expected, the strengthening of the dollar over the past couple of years has weighed on the number of non-resident home buyers. But we doubt the Canadian dollar or renminbi will weaken any... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the plunge in UK gilt yields last? In the wake of the UK’s vote for Brexit on 23rd June, long-term government bond yields have fallen further there than in other developed countries. (See Chart below.) Indeed, the 10-year Gilt yield... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Making the most of weaker currencies? The weakening of most Latin American currencies has helped the region’s economies adjust to the terms of trade shock caused by the drop in global commodity prices. But while weaker currencies mean... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May 2016) The weaker-than-expected 0.4% y/y rise in Mexican industrial production growth in May, down sharply from 1.9% y/y in April, confirms that the sector remains the weak spot of the economy. There’s... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (May) Strong May manufacturing figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy avoided a recession in Q2. The sector seems to be benefiting from the weak rand. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New Zealand dollar won’t continue to defy gravity The New Zealand dollar may not to be able to defy gravity for much longer as a shrinking interest rate premium could drag it down from US$0.73 now to around US$0.65 by the end of the year. That would... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Support for the economy taking shape The headlines this week have concentrated on the negative impact that Brexit has had on sterling and confidence, as well as the temporary suspension of trading in a number of commercial property funds... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A Goldilocks depreciation? The fall in the pound since the EU vote has been widely presented as a negative development. Not only is it being seen as a general indicator of Brexit vote fall-out, but many forecasters appear to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
