Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: CBE’s deficit financing adds to pressures on the pound The Egyptian government seems to be increasingly reliant on the central bank to finance the budget deficit. If this persists, inflation is likely to remain elevated and downward pressure on the pound... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Basically stable” renminbi in quiet retreat The renminbi’s continued trade-weighted decline is probably best seen as an opportunistic response by Chinese policymakers to a period of broad dollar weakness rather than reflecting a policy to... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting used to lower growth Global growth was sluggish in the first quarter, but it is likely to pick up a bit during the rest of the year. A policy-induced rebound in China and recovery in the prices of key commodities should... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Maturing FX swaps unlikely to rattle markets Recent concerns over a potential market sell-off when the Reserve Bank‘s FX swap facilities, unveiled during the 2013 “taper tantrum”, mature have been overstated. For a start, the RBI has already... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s stubbornness will drag on growth While we’re still hopeful that the divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy will help to bring the euro lower against the US dollar, the combination of the Fed’s recent dovishnessand hints... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets benefit from resurgent commodity prices The further recovery in commodity prices over the past month has given financial markets in the emerging world another leg up. We doubt that commodity prices will rise much further, but with clearer... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack What’s behind the dollar’s slide? The US dollar has slid against other major currencies since its peak on 20th January. This has been due to higher commodity prices, greater appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of expectations... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this a temporary setback for the dollar? Three key developments explain the US dollar’s slide against other major currencies since its peak on 20 th January – higher commodity prices, increased appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The sharp acceleration of Nigerian inflation is yet another sign that the country’s controversial currency and price control policies have failed. We expect that inflation will continue rising... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Turkey regained competitiveness? There is some evidence that the fall in the lira in the past few years has led to import substitution in parts of Turkey’s manufacturing sector, suggesting that the economy’s competitiveness has... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election signals continuation of market-friendly policies The early results of Peru’s presidential election suggest that the race will go to a run-off on 5th June. But given that both leading candidates are likely to continue with the current government’s... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egyptian inflation edged down to 9.0% y/y in March, but we think the inflation figures are yet to fully capture the impact of the devaluation of the pound in the same month. Indeed, we expect... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A simple economist’s view of the euro and the yen The recent weakness of the US dollar against the euro and especially the yen has already led many to tear up their currency forecasts for the year. However, expectations for US monetary policy still... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen-strength raises chances of more monetary easing The government has tried to talk down the yen down over last week as the currency has climbed to fresh highs against the dollar. While we still consider intervention in the currency markets unlikely... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
