Energy Watch What does the rest of the year hold in store for oil prices? Oil prices are now back at around $50 per barrel (for Brent) but they have been volatile over the last few months. Speculation about a deal to freeze output, high stocks and outages in production have... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Currencies remain a concern While the recent fall in the cash rate to record lows in Australia and New Zealand should help to support household spending, the effect on other areas of the economy may be more limited. For one, we... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why aren’t the markets more worried about the renminbi? China’s currency continues to weaken and has now fallen by around 7% on a trade-weighted basis this year. But while past episodes of renminbi (RMB) depreciation have rattled global markets, they have... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Two major reasons for cheer Over the past month, two key developments in India have given investors reason to cheer. The first is the passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill, which could bring huge benefits... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Gradual acceleration, but recovery will be slow After two years of progressively slower growth, most African economies will strengthen in 2017. This recovery will be driven by rising commodity prices, which should ease strains in the balance of... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Weaker dollar supports commodity prices With a few exceptions, commodity prices have trended higher over the past week. A weaker dollar on the back of the July FOMC minutes showing that Fed officials were divided over the timing of the next... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Capital flows out of China accelerated in July to their fastest since February, according to our latest detailed estimates. The People’s Bank responded with heavier intervention so that, despite... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Treasuries vulnerable to waning demand from overseas? A sharp increase in the cost of hedging has diminished the appeal of Treasuries to many foreign investors, especially those whose funds are denominated in yen and euros. This is potentially... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen to drag on exports The sharp weakening of the yen in the early stages of Abenomics helped to shield Japanese exporters from the slowdown in global demand. However, the renewed strengthening of the exchange rate since... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will further rate cuts make a difference in Indonesia? Given the current backdrop of weak growth, low inflation and a stable currency, Bank Indonesia is likely to cut its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo rate, at its upcoming meeting. But more... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Why Brazil’s real could hold on to its recent gains Given the extent of its rally over the past couple of months it’s difficult to make the case that the Brazilian real will now strengthen much further from here. But by the same token, we think there... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Dollar bond yields hit 2014 lows Yields on emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government and corporate bonds have fallen even further in the past month as ultra-low returns in developed markets have boosted demand for riskier... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update No need to panic over maturing FX swaps There still appears to be some confusion over the potential market impact when the RBI’s FX swap facilities mature next month. The RBI has already confirmed that the maturing swaps have been covered... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar punishing the RBA The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t done itself any favours by providing no real hints that interest rates will fall below 1.5%, as the resulting strengthening in the dollar will make it even harder... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Weaker currencies continue to sustain supply The prices of precious metals in US dollar terms are back to the level seen at the beginning of 2010, with the exception of platinum, which has fallen sharply during the period. However, production... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
