Japan Economics Weekly End of tourism boom no disaster The stronger yen has brought Japan’s tourism boom to a halt. However, the importance ofoverseas visitors for economic activity remains small. The bigger risks from the appreciation ofthe exchange rate... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the kiwi dollar rise to parity against the Aussie? The impressive performance of New Zealand’s economy in the second quarter has contributed to the strengthening in the New Zealand dollar towards parity with the Australian dollar. Our economic... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave policy on hold came as no surprise as easing Brexit fears and the ECB’s inaction have led upward pressure on the franc to abate. But the SNB made clear that... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of a possible shift in the policy mix With monetary stimulus approaching its limits, fiscal stimulus could soon become more fashionable. What would be the effect of such a shift in the policy mix on bonds, currencies and equities? 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.) Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investor interest on the wane A stronger US dollar on the back of renewed expectations that the Fed will hike rates by the end of the year weighed on the prices of most industrial and precious metals last month. The only metals... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Dollar strength weighs on commodities The prices of most commodities retreated in late August as the dollar strengthened on the back of renewed expectations that the Fed will raise rates this year. That said, activity data out of China... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Are US equities set for a rougher ride? Although a lack of volatility in the US stock market has often given way to amajor correction, we don’t interpret the recent low level of the VIX index as asign that equity prices are about to plummet... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound could fall 25% if central bank loosens its grip We think the Egyptian pound could fall by as much as 25% against the US dollar, to 12.0/US$, by end-2017 if the authorities shift to a more flexible exchange rate as part of its prospective IMF deal. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets calm following Yellen’s comments Asian financial markets generally shrugged off last Friday’s comments from US Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in which she suggested the likelihood of an early rate hike in the US has increased. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again It’s been a very calm month for financial markets in most of Emerging Europe. One exception, however, is Ukraine where renewed tensions with Russia have caused the currency to weaken and dollar bond... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal? The Egyptian authorities seem close to securing an IMF deal, but the conditions attached to lending have been a stumbling block to a bailout in the past and opposition has already started to emerge... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies take Yellen comments in their stride Currencies in Latin America have edged down against the dollar since Fed Chair Janet Yellen left the door open to a hike in US interest rates this year in her Jackson Hole speech, but the moves have... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are record “shorts” a new threat to sterling? Non-commercial participants, sometimes described as “speculators”, are now running a record number of short positions in the pound against the dollar, according to US data. However, this alone does... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, but further tightening still likely The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold despite a continued acceleration in credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency. We think another interest rate hike is... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Markets stable one year after panic The rally in China’s stock markets appears to be running out of steam. Meanwhile, further FX intervention by the PBOC has helped to keep the renminbi relatively stable against the US dollar, though it... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
