Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates on hold as expected today, but it will continue to intervene in FX markets if needed, as is likely in the run-up to the UK referendum. An actual... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How would Brexit affect Sweden? The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona. And... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should European markets be more worried about Brexit? Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery The downturn in Latin America’s economy should bottom out over the second half of this year and economic growth should return as we move into 2017. The recession in the region’s largest economy –... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The future still looks bright for the US dollar The latest US Employment Report has dealt the dollar a fresh blow, after its much-improved performance during most of May. Our view, however, is that the currency’s latest fall will be more than... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Goldilocks inflation rare bright spot for policymakers For China’s policymakers worrying about overcapacity, misplaced credit and pressures on the currency, the benign inflation outlook is a rare bright spot. We think consumer price inflation in China was... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: What to look for when CBN clarifies naira policy The long delay in explaining its new FX policy is another blow to the credibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria. In this note, we examine three key questions raised by the current FX policy... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Strong dollar weighs on precious metals prices Precious metals prices fell across the board in May. A strong dollar on the back of upward revisions to US interest rate expectations was the main factor behind the poor performance of the sector... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A fresh look at currency misalignment The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) recently published its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). These suggest that the Colombian peso... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What difference would MSCI inclusion make? A decision to include mainland Chinese shares in MSCI’s global equity indices would cause ripples rather than waves in Shanghai and Shenzhen. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies slide on Fed fears Asian currencies fell back in May following signals from the Federal Reserve that interest rates in the US are likely to be raised this summer. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira ‘reforms’ take centre stage Hints of a devaluation have led to confusion over the direction of Nigerian FX policy. Political uncertainty and fears of a ratings downgrade left South African rand as the worst performing EM... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equity markets stumble, despite oil rally Equity markets across the Gulf have struggled over the past month, in spite of a further recovery in oil prices. At the same time, speculation has increased that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal... 30th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation a last resort In spite of the backdrop of the recent recovery in oil prices, which broke through US$50pb today for the first time this year, speculation has mounted that Saudi Arabia will devalue its currency. We... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am currencies rattled more than most Currencies across Latin America have been caught up in the EM-wide sell-off in recent weeks, triggered by the US Fed signalling that a June interest rate hike is still on the table. But a combination... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well-placed to cope with the Fed’s next rate hikes The US Fed looks set to increase interest rates soon, possibly as early as its June meeting, and we think it will end up hiking more than is generally expected over the next couple of years. However... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
