Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) October’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer suggests that GDP growth could accelerate in the near term. But with the full effects of the franc’s strength yet to be felt and deflation risks... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar bond yields edge down following bumper sale The past month has been dominated by Saudi Arabia’s inaugural international bond sale and, in the first few days of trading, yields on the bonds have edged down in line with those in the rest of the... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Politics help Lat Am markets to outperform Latin America’s financial markets have performed strongly this month thanks to rising commodity prices, as well as favourable political developments in the cases of Brazil and Mexico. The exception is... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt edges closer to IMF deal as shortages bite The Egyptian government has inched closer to an IMF financing package over the past month after securing a US$2bn deposit from Saudi Arabia. This makes up a third of the bilateral financing that the... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery EM GDP is currently growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, with the recovery being driven mainly bystronger growth in commodity producers as well as an upturn in China. According to our GDP tracker... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures remain elevated Much of the focus both before and after the RBI’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25bp (to 6.25%) in early October has been on the sharp fall in headline inflation over the past couple of months. But... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China picked up last month. Global investors have regained some of their appetite for renminbi assets, but Chinese households and firms are... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi has further to slide against US dollar Dollar strength rather than renminbi weakness has been the main driver of the latest drop in the renminbi, which has taken it to its weakest against the US dollar in over six years. In trade-weighted... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political risks take toll on lira and leu Domestic political risks have taken a toll on Emerging Europe’s two worst performing currencies – the Turkish lira and Romanian leu – over the past month. For the lira, in particular, we think... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What is driving overseas demand for UK property? The widely held view that the drop in the pound is the primary factor propping up demand for UK property among overseas buyers is not wrong – but it is too simplistic. The fall in sterling will have... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s star begins to fade Mexico’s faltering economy probably escaped recession in Q3 – but it’s a close call. Our GDP growth forecast for this year was already below consensus but we are nudging it down from 2.0% to 1.8%... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stronger dollar not enough to knock the Fed off course The recent strengthening in the dollar and rise in Treasury yields are unlikely to prevent the Fed from raising rates in December. The moves seen so far have been small, and with a December rate hike... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will the Fed rock the boat? We expect risky assets to fare well in 2017/18, even as the yields of US Treasury bonds continue toclimb in response to tighter-than-expected Fed policy. We think the stock market in the US will only... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can we forecast elections and referendums? The failure of opinion polls or bookmakers to predict the UK’s June vote to leave the EU caught many investors by surprise. However, both polls and betting markets have a reasonable track record in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
