Japan Economics Focus Has Abenomics failed? Structural reforms since the launch of Abenomics have been insufficient to improve the medium-term outlook for Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, monetary policy is running into diminishing returns. As a... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen unlikely to hold on to post-Brexit-vote strength The UK’s vote to leave the EU has pushed the yen to levels last seen when Quantitative and Qualitative Easing was first launched, while the Nikkei has slumped by 8%. These moves increase the chances... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Global Markets Update - Has the "Brexit" storm already passed? Not surprisingly, the outcome of yesterday’s referendum in the UK has hit sterling hard and driven down the prices of equities and most commodities. At the same time, it has boosted the “safe-haven”... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Currency moves, not economic links, main Brexit concern The direct economic implications for China from the UK’s decision to leave the EU are small. A greater concern is that the renminbi could come under pressure to weaken against a resurgent dollar in... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit vote rattles EMs The vote by the UK to leave the EU is already creating a flight to safety, with financial markets in EMs that have deeper and more liquid markets (Mexico), large current account deficits (South Africa... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian markets suffer amid balance of payments concerns Egyptian financial markets have been hit in the past month amid ongoing concerns over the country’s balance of payments position. Equities have fallen, spreads on dollar bonds have widened and... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might a ‘Brexit’ vote mean for the yen? The yen would presumably jump on safe-haven demand in response to a UK vote to leave the EU, but we would still expect the Japanese currency to end the year much weaker against the dollar. Indeed... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE markets focus on Brexit risks The focus of investors in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is now squarely on the UK’s Brexit vote tomorrow. CEE has the largest linkages with the UK of any EM region, and so is more exposed to... 22nd June 2016 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows out of China have stabilised in recent months and policymakers have responded by once again easing restrictions on cross-border flows. But outflows are likely to pick up again if the... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will investment income eliminate the current account deficit? The main culprit for the UK’s huge current account deficit is the recent deterioration in the UK’s investment income balance. While we expect some of this to be cyclical, we doubt that we will see a... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Core CPI inflation dropped back only slightly to 2.1% in May, from 2.2%, but it should decline more markedly in the second half of this year, as the inflationary impact from the earlier slump in the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China would shrug off a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU on Thursday is unlikely to have much impact on China. The economic and financial linkages between the UK and China are small, at least as far as China is concerned. In... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
