India Economics Update Demonetisation sparks further bond market rally The government’s surprise demonetisation announcement has led to a sharp rise in bank deposits over the past couple of weeks. The rush of liquidity in the system has led to a fall in interbank rates... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter financial conditions may prompt rate cut Although the Canadian dollar has weakened further lately, financial conditions overall appear to be tightening now because of rising market interest rates and new stricter mortgage rules. Given the... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Latest data highlight varying inflation outlooks October’s consumer prices data highlight the contrasting inflation outlooks in Sweden, Switzerland and Norway. In Sweden, consumer price inflation picked up to its strongest rate in four-and-a-half... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian ringgit weakness to deter interest rate cuts The Malaysian central bank confirmed today that it has been intervening in foreign exchange markets to support the ringgit, which is now close to its lowest level since the Asian financial crisis... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up peso, further hikes likely The 50bp increase in Mexican interest rates (to 5.25%) at today’s meeting was aimed at supporting the peso in the aftermath of the US election and it’s clear that further hikes are on the cards. We... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank stands pat, but further rate hikes likely Today’s decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its key interest unchanged at 14.75% is probably a pause in the tightening cycle. We think the fall in the pound since it was floated will push... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates, easing cycle nearing an end Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold at 4.75% and made clear that its focus is currently on maintaining a stable exchange rate rather than supporting the economy. With rate hikes in... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What weapons would China wield in a trade war? In the event of a trade war with the US, China’s response would go well beyond tariff increases. US companies would find their products and operations in China subject to tighter regulation that... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will struggle to keep franc’s rise at bay The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) pledge to intervene in foreign exchange markets appears to havealleviated upward pressure on the franc in the wake of the US election. But experience has shown... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong króna may yet prompt a rate cut in Iceland The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged rests on overly cautious assumptions for the króna and on fears about fiscal policy and capital controls that will probably not... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our EM markets forecasts The slump in emerging markets (EMs) since Donald Trump pulled off the shock of the century has so far been relatively mild, and we are not making wholesale changes to our forecasts. Trump’s victory... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How a weaker pound will benefit Egypt’s economy The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound since it was floated earlier this month should help to narrow the country’s current account deficit and support a pick-up in private capital inflows. If backed up... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Trump win pushes bond yields higher Donald Trump’s victory has exacerbated the upward movement in Treasury yields, pushing 10-year UK gilt yields higher too. Meanwhile, market participants have revised up their expectations for official... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
