China Economics Update Strong dollar making life hard for the PBOC The renminbi’s depreciation against the US dollar quickened in November, with the Chinese currency reaching fresh multi-year lows against its US counterpart. We expect it to breach 7.0 against the US... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong earnings push equity markets to ten-month high Chinese equities extended their rally in November, hitting the highest since January. The renminbi fell to an eight-year low against the US dollar, but strengthened against the trade-weighted basket... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets stabilise post Trump Financial markets in Latin America have stabilised following an initial sell-off in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. While we expect dollar-denominated bonds to come under further pressure... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Trump effect limited, but Zuma rocks the rand The effect of the US election result on African currency and equity markets seems to have been fleeting. In South Africa, though, the rand has closely tracked the possibility that Jacob Zuma could be... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi interbank rates edge lower, but will rise again soon Interbank interest rates in Saudi Arabia have edged down over the past month as investor sentiment towards the Kingdom has improved and policy moves have helped to ease liquidity constraints at banks... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still favour EM equities over US$ bonds Yields of emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated bonds have risen since the US elections, but are still generally lower than the forward earnings yields of equities. This is one reason why we believe... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further yen weakness and Nikkei gains ahead The Japanese yen remains on course for our long-held forecast of 120 against the dollar next year, which is based largely on our view that the Fed will raise US interest rates more aggressively than... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM currencies? Emerging market currencies have been one of the major casualties of the global sell-off since the November 8th US elections. Some, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, are likely to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Anti-corruption drive has further to run The government’s shock demonetisation announcement earlier this month was its boldest measure yet to tackle corruption and formalise large parts of the shadow economy, but it is unlikely to be the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s decline does not take the onus off the ECB Taken in isolation, the euro’s decline against the dollar is a welcome development for the euro-zone economy. But in trade-weighted terms, the currency has still strengthened this year. And given that... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is EM FX intervention a threat to US Treasuries? More emerging market (EM) central banks may step in to support their currencies by selling reserve assets if risk appetite takes another turn for the worse. But unless China is forced into aggressive... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate to stay on hold throughout 2017 Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% suggests that it is more worried about supporting the weak currency than boosting the sluggish economy. Looking... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No post-Trump overhaul in our forecasts While many analysts are scrambling to revise down their economic forecasts for Mexico and the rest of Latin America in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, for now we see little reason to make... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Gilt yields won’t rise much further The recent rise in gilt yields has fully reversed the falls seen after the EU referendum. Although they have followed Treasury yields up following Trump’s election victory, this is not the whole story... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China last month were the largest since January’s panic over the renminbi. While markets appear more at ease about the trajectory of renminbi... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
