China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Economy’s resilience to keep MPC on hold The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will take some comfort from recent data suggesting that the economy has maintained its momentum in Q4, while sterling’s recovery may have lessened the extent to... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Nov.) A big decline in China’s FX reserves last month confirms that the People’s Bank had to step up intervention in the face of a surging US dollar and more rapid capital outflows. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar strength and Treasury weakness likely to continue Since Donald Trump won the race to the White House, investors have had to adjust to the prospect of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy. Not surprisingly, the prospect has caused the dollar to... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What higher and lower oil prices would mean for Russia The volatility in oil prices over the past couple of months has prompted clients to ask us how higher and lower oil prices could affect the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Focus, we use several... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Little sign that the economy has slowed in Q4 Both households and businesses appear to have been undeterred by Brexit uncertainty in Q3. What’s more, the latest business surveys suggest that the economy will turn in another solid performance in... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Time to worry about a foreign currency debt crisis in Asia? The sharp rise in the US dollar since Donald Trump’s election victory has led to renewed concerns over the rapid build-up in foreign currency (FX) debt in Emerging Asia. For most countries, FX debt... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) The small drop in Egypt’s PMI last month suggests that the economy hasn’t deteriorated significantly following the pound’s float and subsequent 50% fall against the US dollar. But with inflation set... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time for Italy? A rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum could plausibly set Italy on a path towards an eventual exit from the euro-zone, an outcome not remotely priced in... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness to feed inflation rebound The recent weakening of the yen will lift headline inflation by around 0.5 percentage points in coming months and further gains are likely if, as we have been forecasting for a while, the yen weakens... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update External market drivers Trump domestic factors The election of Donald Trump in the US drove large moves in Nordic and Swiss financial markets last month, with currencies generally depreciating against the US dollar while long-term bond yields... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets outperform after Trump victory Hopes that Donald Trump’s election victory will bring about the end of economic and financial sanctions on Russia caused the country’s financial markets to outperform those in other emerging markets... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets under-estimating political risks? Don’t draw too much comfort from the markets’ muted response to political risks in the euro-zone. It may not tell us much about the scale of the threats facing the currency union and it may not last. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets stabilise Asian financial markets have stabilised after falling sharply in the immediate aftermath of Donald Trump’s surprise US election victory. Looking ahead, we expect to see further falls in currencies... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What next for the rupee? Markets largely shrugged off the recent fall in the rupee to a record low against the US dollar, and were right to do so. With other EM currencies also weakening and inflation higher in India than... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
