UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More cause for optimism but price pressures grow This week has brought further indications that the Government is leaning towards a soft(ish) form of Brexit and some sort of transitional arrangement. Meanwhile, the economy has continued to hold up... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes Latin America’s financial markets have largely shrugged off yesterday’s US interest rate hike, as well as upward revisions to Fed officials’ rate projections – currencies and dollar bonds have made... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets find support from higher oil prices The rise in oil prices following the recent OPEC deal to cut output has supported financial markets across the Gulf over the past month. Stock markets have perked up and spreads of dollar bonds over... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to expect in 2017 and beyond Donald Trump’s surprise win in the Presidential election has introduced uncertainty across a number of policy dimensions, but the likelihood of a significant fiscal stimulus next year points to a pick... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia holds rates, currency worries to remain a constraint Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today demonstrates the central bank’s focus remains on supporting the rupiah. With interest rates in the US likely to rise... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s ultra-loose policy won’t stop franc rising against euro The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold and pledge continued currency intervention was as expected. The Bank may have drawn some comfort from the franc’s recent decline... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Can sterling hold onto its recent gains? The continued rally in sterling over the past month or so means that it is now around 10% lower on a trade-weighted basis relative to where it stood on the eve of the EU referendum, rather than the 15... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia moves to stabilise the ringgit The Malaysian central bank (BNM) has introduced a range of measures to stabilise the ringgit, which has been the region’s worst performing currency over the past month. The most significant step it... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets regain their poise, but risks remain Financial markets in the emerging world have generally stabilised since the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory last month. But with Trump yet to take office, investors are likely to... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Low inflation cements Riksbank loosening As inflation was a touch weaker in November than the Riksbank anticipated, monetary policy is set to be loosened further. While we expect the Riksbank to announce an extension of QE, the already-weak... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Keeping up the fight against a strong franc The Swiss National Bank will stress after its meeting on 15th December that it is prepared to act decisively to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Indeed... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is US dollar strength a serious threat to the world economy? Some have suggested that further appreciation of the dollar would pose a significant threat to the outlook for the world economy. In contrast, we think that the US currency is unlikely to strengthen... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia well-placed to weather Fed rate hikes For most countries in Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. However, aggressive Fed tightening could cause problems in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q3) South Africa’s current account position deteriorated again in Q3. The wide deficit is the key reason why we expect that the rand will remain under pressure in 2017. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
