EM Valuations Monitor Equities to find some comfort from low valuations Emerging market (EM) equities face a tricky year, as the Fed tightens policy, Donald Trump takes office and geo-political risks blot the outlook. But while these factors probably rule out a repeat of... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The People’s Bank fights back The year has started with another wave of stories about capital flooding out of China, alongside an unusually sharp strengthening of the renminbi. The currency gain over the past couple of days was... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US “border tax” and the implications for EM currencies The switch to a so-called “border adjustment” system of corporate tax that has been proposed by US House Republicans could in theory lead to a weakening of EM currencies against the dollar, but in... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies depreciating against US dollar Following a host of central bank meetings last month, most of the Swiss and Nordic currencies fell against the US dollar. While there were few major changes for bond yields, equities in most countries... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2017 We expect Japan’s economy to grow by 1% next year. Given how low potential growth is, this should be enough to drive a further decline in spare capacity and to add to price pressures. The Bank of... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stresses mid-17 exit from koruna cap still likely Despite mounting speculation that the Czech MPC would hint at removing the koruna cap earlier than previously suggested, today’s MPC press statement was surprisingly dovish. We remain of the view that... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes and risks for 2017 The range of possible economic outcomes for next year are wider than usual and it is possible that 2017 proves to be a sweet spot for both Australia and New Zealand. But it seems more likely that a... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to climb even further against the euro and yen We are revising up our forecasts for the US dollar against the euro and the yen to reflect our view that the contrast between the policies of the Fed on the one hand and the ECB and the BoJ on the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira fix will prove unsustainable in 2017 Nigerian policymakers seem committed to the FX policies that have strangled their country’s economy. The situation is, however, unsustainable. We expect that the currency will be devalued again in... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics OPEC deal boosts financial markets in frontier oil exporters Financial markets in frontier oil exporters have performed well over the past month, as oil prices have rallied following the OPEC deal to cut output. Equity markets have perked up. And spreads of... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are exporters squandering the drop in the pound? On the face of it, the early evidence suggests that exporters are using the drop in the pound to boost margins as opposed to market share. This poses a risk to our optimistic forecasts for exports... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Mixed performance in Q3, but surveys bode well for Q4 Recent national accounts data showed a marked divergence in quarterly economic growth in Q3, with the Swiss economy stagnating while the Icelandic economy expanded by an impressive 4.6% q/q. In the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets take Fed rate hike in their stride Financial markets in India have taken last week’s decision by the US Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in a year in their stride. A bigger test might come if the Fed now tightens more... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising oil prices support Russia market rally The rise in oil prices following the agreement by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has helped Russian equities and the ruble to outperform for the second consecutive month. Elsewhere, Polish... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets weather first US rate hike in a year Asian financial markets took last week’s resumption of the US Fed’s tightening cycle in their stride, but bigger tests are likely to come in 2017 if, as we expect, the Fed raises rates further than... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the US stock market in a bubble? Although the S&P 500 has risen to a record high in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, we do not think that it is in a bubble. Admittedly, its price/earnings ratio is now about double the long-run... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
