Asia Economic Outlook Steady growth ahead Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Next Riksbank move will be to tighten monetary policy Today’s minutes confirmed that only half of the Riksbank’s Executive Board supported the extension of its QE programme. And with inflation surpassing expectations in December, there is little cause... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation close to bottoming out Inflation fell to fresh lows at the end of 2016, with the Bank of Japan’s favourite measure of underlying inflation turning negative in the Tokyo region on our estimates. What’s more, there are few... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a strong dollar? The Mexican peso and the Turkish lira have come under further pressure over the past couple of days, but the more striking thing is how resilient other EM currencies have been in the face of a... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing Turkish balance sheet risks from the fall in the lira The plunge in the lira doesn’t, so far, appear to have resulted in significant balance sheet strains, but the rapid rise in private sector FX liabilities suggests that this is still a risk. At the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Bright start to 2017 unlikely to last Financial markets in the emerging world have generally made a bright start to 2017, but we doubt their recent good form will continue given the large amount of uncertainty regarding the global... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to panic about the pound While the latest fall in the pound could potentially push inflation higher than otherwise, it should strengthen the already considerable beneficial effects of a weaker currency too. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Whither the real? The key driver of the Brazilian real over the past couple of years has been fluctuations in the price of the country’s commodity exports. Accordingly, our view that the price of Brazil’s main... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest fall in the lira and what it means for Turkish rates On past form, the latest fall in the Turkish lira appears to be sufficiently large to trigger an interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. If the Council doesn’t act, that will only reinforce... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC down to its last $3 trillion The value of China’s foreign exchange reserves fell by 10% in 2016 as the People’s Bank fought to prevent a disorderly decline in the renminbi. With the level of reserves still well above most... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Stock market starts 2017 on a high The very beginning of 2017 has not been shy of Brexit-related drama, although none of it appears to have particularly rattled financial markets. This probably reflects the fact that the latest data... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Le Pen’s ECU plan feasible? Marine Le Pen’s suggestion last week that France could leave the euro-zone, devalue and then peg the new currency to the euro to limit exchange rate volatility has been written off as a hopeless... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A strong end to 2016 Revisions from the ONS mean that quarterly GDP growth in Q3 is now estimated to have been 0.6% – the same as in Q2. What’s more, business surveys suggest that this pace was maintained in Q4... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Who will benefit from rising US interest rates? The recent slump in the yen has lifted the yen-value of foreign assets and associated income streams. We estimate that the government’s net debt has fallen by 11% of GDP since the US election as the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar decline is not as good as it looks The recent weakening in the Australian dollar to a seven-month low against the US dollar won’t boost activity and inflation by as much as you may think as it has not been matched by a weakening in the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read