Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures remain elevated Much of the focus both before and after the RBI’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25bp (to 6.25%) in early October has been on the sharp fall in headline inflation over the past couple of months. But... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China picked up last month. Global investors have regained some of their appetite for renminbi assets, but Chinese households and firms are... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi has further to slide against US dollar Dollar strength rather than renminbi weakness has been the main driver of the latest drop in the renminbi, which has taken it to its weakest against the US dollar in over six years. In trade-weighted... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political risks take toll on lira and leu Domestic political risks have taken a toll on Emerging Europe’s two worst performing currencies – the Turkish lira and Romanian leu – over the past month. For the lira, in particular, we think... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What is driving overseas demand for UK property? The widely held view that the drop in the pound is the primary factor propping up demand for UK property among overseas buyers is not wrong – but it is too simplistic. The fall in sterling will have... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s star begins to fade Mexico’s faltering economy probably escaped recession in Q3 – but it’s a close call. Our GDP growth forecast for this year was already below consensus but we are nudging it down from 2.0% to 1.8%... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stronger dollar not enough to knock the Fed off course The recent strengthening in the dollar and rise in Treasury yields are unlikely to prevent the Fed from raising rates in December. The moves seen so far have been small, and with a December rate hike... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will the Fed rock the boat? We expect risky assets to fare well in 2017/18, even as the yields of US Treasury bonds continue toclimb in response to tighter-than-expected Fed policy. We think the stock market in the US will only... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can we forecast elections and referendums? The failure of opinion polls or bookmakers to predict the UK’s June vote to leave the EU caught many investors by surprise. However, both polls and betting markets have a reasonable track record in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Near-term risks largely on the downside The recent more positive tone in commodity markets has been helped by a number of tailwinds that may be about to fade, if not reverse. The boost to Chinese demand from policy stimulus now already... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Is the sell-off in UK government bonds overdone? While the pound continues to be the main casualty of the vote to leave the EU, UK government bonds have come under pressure recently. Indeed, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risenby around... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policy divergences to favour Swedish krona The Nordic and Swiss economies’ reasonable economic performance, low public debt and stable political backdrop should help to maintain their safe haven status. But there will be some marked economic... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Aug.) Despite a drop in August, machinery orders point to a rebound in investment spending in Q3. However, falling capital goods shipments and the deterioration in business confidence suggest that capital... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
