EM Markets Chart Pack Bond markets still underestimating Fed risks Emerging market (EM) assets have fared quite well over the past month, despite investors expecting the Fed’s next hike to arrive sooner than they did previously. But we doubt that the resilience of... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pound’s latest drop not a sign of Brexit panic The latest fall in the pound has reflected stronger growth overseas and falling expectations for UK inflation rather increased fears of Brexit damage. Indeed, it could help to cushion the blow of the... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM equities stand out from the crowd Recent market movements have left the valuations of many assets looking stretched. But emerging market (EM) equities are an exception – their valuations still look low relative to those of EM bonds... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys point to a strong Q1 Survey data for February suggest that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q1 following two healthy quarterly gains of 0.4% in the second half of last year. After February’s rise, the PMI pointed to an... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Euro-zone political risk to boost Nordic & Swiss currencies This month see the first of a number of key elections in the euro-zone this year. Investors are likely to become increasingly worried about the potential for anti-euro parties to enter government and... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Signs of strong global growth continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that the strong start to the year continued in February. The global composite PMI remained close to a three-year high and is consistent with world GDP growth of... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Recent fall in gilt yields could prove short lived We think that the recent fall in gilt yields – which appears to partly reflect lower Bank Rate expectations – has been overdone. While economic data has taken a slight turn for the worse, we remain... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Rising inflation starting to hit households Resilient consumer spending was the main reason why GDP growth held up so well in the wake of the Brexit vote. However, there have been signs that the exchange-rate induced rise in inflation is... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What if Italy left the euro-zone? If Italy left the euro-zone, we think that its new currency would depreciate by about 30% against the euro. In the year or so following its exit, the economy would probably contract sharply, but we... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The underperformance of Treasuries is likely to continue The gap between the yields of 10-year government bonds in the US and the UK has grown to its largest level in more than thirty years. Even so, we continue to forecast that it will get bigger. 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes strike dovish tone The minutes of the Riksbank’s February meeting were fairly dovish. With board members concerned about the krona’s appreciation and political risks in the euro-zone, we think that the Bank will wait... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Big movements in Icelandic markets The Icelandic króna has appreciated significantly over the past month, as the central bank reiterated its desire to reduce its foreign exchange intervention. More generally, bond yields have fallen... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Stocks rise, currencies and bond yields steady While most equity markets in the region rose for the second straight month in February, Asian currencies and bond yields largely held steady. Most Asian equity markets have recorded decent gains over... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities hit three-month high Chinese equities started the Year of the Chicken on a bright note, rising in February by the most in three months. Meanwhile, the PBOC has continued to tighten monetary conditions by pushing market... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rallies in ruble and lira lack strong foundations The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the best performing EM currencies this month, but we don’t think their rallies will be sustained. It seems most likely that the ruble will settle... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rebound in EM currencies unlikely to last Having lost ground against the dollar in the aftermath of the US elections, emerging market (EM) currencies have staged a recovery since President Trump’s inauguration. Nonetheless, we still expect... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
