Asia Economics Weekly Are Asian countries manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report this month which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. No country in Emerging Asia meets the criteria... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers playing catch-up after de facto devaluation Recent reforms to Nigeria’s FX regime have further complicated an already convoluted system, which includes a variety of exchange rates. In this Watch, we provide an overview of the state of the FX... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Out of the woods? Evidence of a sharp turnaround in growth and policymakers’ success in preventing a destabilising slide in the renminbi have underpinned a dramatic shift in sentiment towards China. But there are good... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The MPC’s sterling conundrum The Monetary Policy Committee might be relieved to see the pound regaining a bit of ground in recent weeks. But it shouldn’t want the exchange rate to rise too far. 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise not a threat to the recovery The euro’s rise against the US dollar over the past few weeks has probably reflected speculation of ECB tapering, as well as perceptions of diminished political risk in the currency union. We doubt... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Do stretched valuations signal trouble ahead? The valuations of many assets have rarely been as high as they are now. When they have reached such levels in the past, sharp falls have often followed. This suggests that there is a significant risk... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s peso hedges unlikely to have a big impact The Mexican central bank’s new programme of auctioning currency hedges marks a significant departure from its previous FX intervention policy, but is currently small in scale. As such, we doubt it... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Sterling weathers call for indy ref 2 In the week Article 50 received Royal Assent, sterling halted its latest decline despite renewed calls for a second Scottish independence referendum. While the referendum announcement coincided with a... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rate setters give markets pause for thought Ahead of this month’s Fed and MPC interest rate setting meetings, the narrative had been one of markets preparing for a historic divergence in monetary policy between the US and UK. Sterling had been... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growing chance of Czech koruna overshoot after cap exit The jump in speculative inflows to the Czech Republic since the start of the year has increased the likelihood that the central bank will bring forward its planned exit from the koruna cap and that... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but fight against franc will need to continue The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold was as expected given the recent rise in inflation. But with euro-zone political developments likely to put upward pressure on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Contrasting Fed & BoJ policy to boost dollar against the yen We think that the outlook for monetary policy in the US and Japan is consistent with an even stronger dollar against the yen. We are therefore sticking to our forecast that the exchange rate will rise... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth picking up Japan’s unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since the mid-1990s and the job-to-applicant ratio is approaching its bubble year peak. Regular wages are rising at the fastest pace in years, and... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic króna to rise despite lifting of capital controls The Icelandic króna has fallen after the final step in the lifting of capital controls. But with tourism set to grow strongly, we suspect that the króna will rise and put downward pressure on import... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC relaxed about RMB, signals monetary tightening In his annual outing before the press at the National People’s Congress today, People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan made a strong case that policy support for the renminbi can be sustained in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
